US Preliminary Extended Weather thru Feb 1

Will Not Belabor The Bottom Line For The Confidence In This Medium
Range Forecast: It Is Very Low.

The Big Uncertainty Is How Much Of The Energy Dropping Along The West Coast Tucks Offshore Early In The Period--A Situation That Would Lead To A Much Slower Ejection Of The Trough.

The 12z/24 European Centre Guidance Kept The Trough Out Of Play By Undercutting The Ridge To The North.

The Remainder Of The Models, Including Previous Runs Of The Ecens Mean, Kept The Energy Close Enough To The Main Band Of Westerlies To Allow It To Kick Into The Southern Plains And Phase With The Next Slug Of Energy Dropping Down From Canada.

The European Guidance Is Often The First To Latch Correctly Onto A New Trend, So Gave It Half The Weighting In The Manual Blend.

Balanced The Remainder Of The Blend With The More Phased/ Progressive 12z/24 Gefs Mean. The Result Is The Amorphous Blend Of Two Disparate Ensemble Means, Which Renders Discussion Of The Particulars Of Any Given Synoptic System Moot Until The Big Picture Becomes Clearer.

The Safest Thing To Note About The Sensible Weather Is The Massive Warm-Up For The Nation East Of The Rockies, With The Anomalies Flipping From Double-Digit Negative To Double-Digit Positive Across The Upper Midwest Days 3 And 4.

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