US Preliminary Extended Weather thru Dec 22

A Very Active Mid-December Weather Pattern Stays On Tap For Next Week...

Like Discussed Yesterday For This Pattern...A Cooling Lead
Mid-Upper Level Trough Heading Into The Medium Range By Tue Over The E-Central Us Ramps Up By Midweek Along/Off The East Coast And Especially The Northeast Where Ample Guidance Support Exists For Energies Consolidate To Form A Well Organized Winter Coastal Storm And Significant Associated Sensible Weather Threat.

Meanwhile Upstream Mid-Upper Level Cool Troughing Along The West Coast Tue Works Steadily Inland And Across The Plains By Midweek And To The Ern Us By Thu Into Next Weekend In Amplifying Flow.

Amplification Occurs In Response To Expected Deep Mean Low
Development Over The Gulf Of Alaska Along With Potent Mid-Upper
Level Trough Amplification Down Off The West Coast Coupled With An Amplified Late Week Wrn Us Mid-Upper Level Ridge.

This Should Prove Quite A Wet Pattern Along The West Coast With Lesser Amounts Widespread Inland With System Passage...With Max Potential Especially Over Favored Terrain.

Later Next Week System Track Over The E-Central Us Then Coastal Has Increased Potential For Deeper Development And Precipitation Including North Side Wintery Weather In This Regime Consistent With Flow Amplitude Support Aloft And Associated Cooling.

Hpc Overnight Medium Range Guidance Has Been Primarily Derived
Tonight From A 50-50 Blend Of Generally Compatable Yesterdays 12
Utc Gefs/Ecmwf Ensemble Means. This Solution Maintains Good
Continuity With Recent Hpc Guidance. The Gefs/Ecmwf Ensemble
Means By Nature Mitigate To Some Degree Less Predictable Embedded System Specifics/Interaction Variance And Becomes Increasingly With Time On The More Amplified Side Of The Full Envelope Of Model And Ensemble Solutions Next Week...With The Ecmwf Ensembles More Amplified Through Midweek And The Gefs Ensembles Leading To More Amplified Flow From The Ern Pacific Into The W-Central Us Later Week Into Next Weekend.

That Type Of Solution Has Been Championed And Seems Reasonable Considering Water Vapor Imagery Way Upstream
Out Through The W-Central Rn Pacific Still Shows Quite A Bit Of
Energy Feeding And Quickly Leading To Amplifying Downstream Flow
In A Manner Consistent With A Rossby Wave Packet.

While Flow Amplification Is Expected In This Scenario...Forecast Spread While Decreased From Yesterday Remains Sufficient To Suggests Slightly Greater Than Normal Uncertainty. A Quick Peek At The Latest 00 Utc Ecmwf Now Certainly Shows The Potential For Even Higher Amplitude Development In This Flow Amid Lingering Uncertainty.


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