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US Preliminary Extended Weather thru Dec 18

The Medium Range Players Appear To Be Central North Pacific
Ridging Combined With Developing Ridging Over Hudson Bay... Which Offer Positive Feedback Between Each Other.

These Centers Teleconnect To Troughing Through The West And Into The Central Plains With Intermittent Weaker Ridging/Troughing Over The East.

The Models And Ensembles Continue To Struggle With The Speed/ Amplitude Of Mid-Level Energy Streaming Across The Pacific Over The Next Week But Have Managed To Maintain Broad Continuity
With The Latest 00z Runs.

The Gfs/Gefs Mean Are Still A Bit Quicker Than The Ecmwf/12z Ecwmf Ensemble Mean... As Can Be Typical. While The Trend For The Past Several Days Has Been Quicker Rather Than Slower... The Increased Blocking Over Hudson Bay May Act To Slow The Progression Of Systems Through The Southern Conus By Early Next Week. Until Then... Relied On The Ecmwf/Ecmwf Ensemble Mean Given Its Better Fit To Continuity Especially In The West.

By Next Week... Southern Stream Energy Should Eject Out Of The Southern Rockies And Through The Plains Into The Lower Ms Valley... But The Guidance Diverges By Several Hundred Miles.

Mean Centroid Position By Tue/D7 Of This Potential System Is Around The 12z/10 Ecmwf Rather Than The Very Southerly 00z/11 Ecmwf. A Modest Weighting Of The 12z/10 Ecmwf Ensemble Mean
Was Used Throughout The Forecast As A Good Balance Between The Two Most Recent Ecmwf Runs.


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