US Preliminary Extended Weather thru Dec 15

Positive Height Anomalies To The North Of Hawaii And Just To The
East Of Greenland Will Both Act To Favor A Reloading Trough Over
The Western Conus Next Week.

The Models And Ensembles Show Good Agreement Through About Fri/D6 Before Timing Differences Over The Pacific Amplify Downstream Into The Pac Nw And Rockies.

Both The 00z Gfs And Ecmwf Presented Plausible Forecasts Within The Ensemble Spread Regarding A Respectable Upper Trough Digging Well Into The Sw States By Thu/D5 And Then Ejecting Onto The Plains Thereafter.

The Gfs Is Ahead Of The Ecmwf And Either Was Acceptable.

However... By Fri-Sat/D6-7... Energy Flowing Atop The Retrograding Northeast Pacific Ridge Presents A Whole Host Of Timing Differences Among The Guidance. Cues Were Taken From The
Ecmwf Ensemble Mean Given Its More Consistent Forecast Compared To The Gefs Mean Over The Past 36-48 Hrs... Bringing Lower Heights Into The Northern Rockies By Sat/D7 Rather Than Ridging Like The Gfs.


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