Heavy Precipitation Expected In California Late This Week Into
Moderate To Heavy Snows Possible For The Northern Mid-Atlantic
States And Interior New England Mid To Late Next Week...
General Flow Pattern
A Repetition Of The Pattern Seen Over The Past Few Weeks Is
Expected, With An Amplified Trough Moving Slowly Through The
Eastern Pacific, With Downstream Ridging Forming Across The West
And Plains, And Renewed Troughing Anticipated Across The Northeast Which Is Expected To Close Off Into A Deep Cyclone As It Moves Into Quebec And Atlantic Canada.
The Ridge/Trough Couplet Over The Lower 48 Is Expected To Be Composed Of Broad Features Of Relatively Low Amplitude, Which Leads To Quick Shortwave Movement/System Progression Through The Lower 48.
The 00z Ecmwf Is Quick With A Shortwave Moving Through The East/ Western Atlantic Early In The Period And Outpaces The Remainder Of The Guidance Late In The Period Near The West Coast, Including Its Own 12z Ensemble Mean. Aloft, The Non-Ecmwf Guidance Fits The 12z Ecmwf Ensemble Mean Best Across Eastern Canada From Thursday Onward (And Plays Into The Slowing/Westward Shift Seen In The Operational Ecmwf Near The East Coast Over Its Past Couple Days Of Runs), Though The Ecmwf Ensemble Mean Surface Low Never Couples With Its 500 Hpa Circulation (Which Seems Unlikely), Showing Minimal Internal Consistency.
Based On The Above, The Pressures Were Based On A 40/30/30 Blend Of The 00z Ukmet/00z Gfs/00z Canadian Through Friday Before Switching To A 50/50 Blend Of The 00z Gfs/00z Gefs Mean Solution Thereafter.
While This Maintained Good Continuity Near The West Coast, It Led
To A More Coastal Cyclone Track Late Tuesday And Wednesday When Compared To Friday Afternoon's Progs And A Greater Snow Threat For The Northeast.
Moderate Precipitation Is Expected To Spread Up The Central
Appalachians Through New England And Northern Mid-Atlantic States
Tuesday Through Thursday As A Low Swings Offshore The New England Coast Before Moving Into Atlantic Canada Thursday.
This Precipitation Could Be In The Form Of Moderate To Heavy Snow
Across The Northern Mid-Atlantic States And Interior New England.
Ridging Across The West And Plains Should Minimize Any Significant
Gulf Moisture Influx Through The Period, Though Light Rains Could
Return Into Texas And The Midwest Thursday Through Next Weekend,
Lured Northward By Weak Frontal Waves Across The Mid-Section Of
The Country Caused By Weak Shortwaves Moving Over The Top Of The Western And Plains Ridge.
Out West, Heavy Precipitation Is Expected To Begin In California And Portions Of The Northwest Thursday, And Continue Through Next Saturday, With Areal Average Liquid Equivalent (Leq) Amounts Of 4-6 Inches Expected...Local Leq Amounts Could Exceed 10 Inches In The Topography Of Northern California Which Could Fall In The Form Of Significant High Elevation Snows.
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