US Preliminary Extended Weather thru Apr 6

Pattern Overview & Guidance Evaluation/Uncertainty Assessment...

Wpc Surface Fronts/Pressure And 500 Mb Graphics Leaned On The Less Progressive Side Of The Full Envelope Of Solutions As Split Flow Across The Pacific Allows Some Initially Amplified Features To
Work Gradually Inland Across The Mid-Latitudes Of North America.

This Seems The Nature Of These Types Of Systems In The Absence Of Better Driving Flow. The Nrn Stream Dominates And A Weaker Srn
Stream Holds Well Underneath Lingering Higher Latitude Blocking
From Ak/Canada To The Nrn Atlc. Forecast Spread And Pattern
Uncertainty Beyond Smaller Scales Seems Slightly Less Than Normal.

The Wpc Blend Used Included A Slower Than Concensus Solution
Cluster From The 12 Utc Ecmwf/Canadian/Ukmet Tue Into Thu Before
Switching To The Least Progressive Of The Ensemble Means...From
The Ecmwf...Later Thu-Sat As Forecast Variance Grows. Recent Gfs And To A Lesser Extent Gefs/Naefs Means Have Tended On The Faster Side Of Guidance.

...Sensible Weather Highlights...

Much Of The Precipitation Along And East Of The Continental Divide
Will Primarily Be Confined To The Leading Edges Of The Cold
Canadian Airmass Intrusions As Enhanced Locally By Waves.

This Stems Overall From A Weak Upslope Component In The High Plains And Modest Fetch And Some Heavier Qpf Potential Across The Gulf Coast...Rio Grande Valley...And The Southeast. Temperatures In
This Pattern Remain Primarily Under The Influence Of The Cooling
Canadian Airmass...With Some Of The Precipitation In The
Northeast/Great Lakes And East Central States Along/Behind The
Cold Front Could Be Of A Brief Dynamic Winter Variety With Limited

Upstream...Expect Less Widespread And More Terrain Focused Pcpn
With The Series Of Lead Srn Stream Troughs Moving Through/Out From The Sw Us Next Week. However...Expected Amplification Of Pacific Flow Into A More Consolidated Stream Could Allow A Decent
Mid-Upper Level System And Better Pcpn Focus To Reach The West
Coast In About A Week.

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