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US Preliminary Extended Weather Update thru Dec 14

Preliminary Update...

The Global Numerical Models Indicate A Major Pattern Change Across Central North America At The Medium Range, With A Deep Trough Along The West Coast, And A Strong Ridge Over The Southeast.

The Split In The Flow Will Not Be Conducive To Massive Arctic
Outbreaks, But Much Of The Interior West And Northern Plains Will
Become Firmly Entrenched In Continental Polar Air.

The Chances For Snow And Ice Will Ramp Up Where This Cold Air Establishes Itself.

Just How Energetic And Amplified The Flow Becomes Along The
Pacific Coast Is Not Clear, With The Deterministic Ecmwf The Most
Gung-Ho In That Regard.

As A Whole, The European Centre Guidance Has Proven A More Reliable Guide To The Upcoming Atmospheric Shuffling, So Based The Update Package Heavily Thereupon.

Incorporated A Modest Weighting Of The 00z/07 Ecens Mean For Days
6 And 7 To Mitigate The Uncertainty Of The Magnitude Of The West
Coast Trough, Though The Import Remains: Unsettled Weather Is
Increasingly Likely Over The Far Southwest.

While The Action Focuses On The Western States, The East Will Not
Be Without Incident.

A Wave Along The Polar Front Days 3 And 4 Is Expected To Be Vigorous Enough To Paint A Stripe Of Precipitation Astride The Appalachian Chain, With Accumulating Snow A Good Bet For The Higher Terrain From Pennsylvania Northward.

It Is Possible That A More Significant Chunk Of Real Estate Will Receive Snow, With Areas From Eastern Kentucky To The Lower Elevations Of New England Vulnerable.


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