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US Preliminary Extended Forecast thru Jun 8

...Multi-Day Heavy Rainfall Threat For Southern Florida...

...Overview And Model Preferences...

Upper Ridging Is Still Forecast To Hold Offshore Both The West And
East Coasts Next Week... With A Fading Closed Upper Low In The
North Central States And Two More In Lower Latitudes /Near
Southern Ca And Fl/.

The Deterministic Models Cluster Near The Ensemble Means To Start The Period But Then Diverge Some Into The Medium Range... Especially The Gfs. The 12z/31 Ecmwf Shows Better Correlation To Its Mean As Well As The 18z/31 Gefs Mean... So Their Cluster Was Preferred For Days 5-7.

The System In The Gulf That Moves Across Florida Late In The Week Continues To Be Watched Closely For A Heavy Rain Threat... Whether Or Not It Is A Tropical Cyclone By Definition.

...Sensible Weather Highlights...

The System Moving Through The High Plains Tue/D3 Should Spread
Precip Eastward And Southward Along/Ahead Of Its Cold Front As
Well As Around The Main Sfc Low. Gulf Moisture Should Be Limited
To Start Thanks To The Front Pushing Off The East Coast At The
Same Time. As It Works Through The Ms Valley Into The Oh Valley...
Increased Moisture May Battle Waning Upper Support To Keep Precip
Amounts Largely Modest Outside Convection. Temperatures Should Be Near To Below Normal East Of The Divide With The Unsettled Weather And Also Cooler Easterly Component Flow Into The
Northeast/Mid-Atlantic.

Focus Through Much Of The Period Will Be On Florida As A Large
Amount Of Moisture Associated With A Slowly Moving Area Of Low
Pressure Heads Northeastward. The Models Vary Quite Largely On The Timing Of This Feature... But All Produce Several Inches Of Rain
Over Successive Days... Adding Up To 10-12 Inches Per The
Deterministic Runs. Ensemble Probabilities Of More Than 5 Inches
In The Days 3-7 Period Exceed 50 Percent Over All Of South Florida ... Which Is Rare For That Time Range.


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