US Preliminary Extended Forecast thru Jun 29

...Overview...

Medium Range Guidance Continues To Hold On To More Of A Typical
Summer Time Pattern With A Subtropical Ridge Solution Across The
South And Southwest... And A Closed H5 High Center (594 Dm) Invof
Four Corners On Day 7.

Meanwhile... A Quasi-Stationary Cutoff Closed H5 Low Originating In The Central Aleutians Settles In By Day 7 Invof 50n 140w.

Over Eastern North America... Weak Troughing Prevails From Hudson Bay To The Ohio Valley As A Series Of Mid-Level Disturbances Migrate Eastward From The North Central Plains To The Great Lakes.

...Model Preferences...

The 21/12z Ecmwf/Gfs Runs And Their Ensemble Means Served As A
Basis For This Morning's Surface/H5 Graphics And The Conus
Temp/Pop Forecast Days 3-7.

This Maintained Fairly Good Continuity From The Previous Graphics...And After Day 4...Liked The Deterministic Ecmwf Idea Of A Weak Backdoor Front Dropping South Across The Northeast And Northern Mid-Atlantic States.

The Front May Never Quite Push South Of The Delmarva...But A Slight Decrease In High Temperatures Has Been Introduced Along The Eastern Seaboard To Account For The Front.

Elsewhere...The 21/12z Gfs/Ecmwf Guidance Maintains An Organized
Disturbance In The Southeastern Tropical Pacific (Days 3-7) And
The Closed High Over The Four Corners Maintains Its Strength
Through Day 6 (28/12z) And Is Nearly +2 Std Deviations From
Normal.

...Sensible Weather Highlights...

Above Normal Temperatures Remain In The Forecast Across The
South... Southern Plains And Desert Southwest...Beneath The
Upper-Level Ridge.

The Greatest Forecast Challenge Remains Along The Northern Periphery Of The Ridge...Where Periods Of Diurnal Convection And Possible Outflow May Temporarily Alter The Temperature/Moisture Profile Across The Missouri Valley... Midwest And Ohio Valley.

Near To Slightly Below Normal Temperatures... And Slightly Above Normal Precipitation... Are Anticipated Across The Northern Plains... Upper Great Lakes... And Northeast This Day 3-7 Forecast Period.

The Closed Low Off The Washington/Oregon Coast Spells Orographic Showers For The Cascades And The Threat Of Deep
Convection For The Siskiyous And Northern Sierra... With The
Heaviest Precipitation Early In The Period Over Northern California.

High-Based Convection Is Possible Late In The Week Across The Central/Southern Rockies Away From The Center Of The Closed High. Temperatures Should Easily Rise Into The 110s Over The Sw Deserts.


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