US Preliminary Extended Forecast thru Jun 22

The Flow Pattern Across The United States Is Quite Stable, With
Only The Passage Of Shortwaves Sloshing The Synoptic Forcing Back And Forth.

The Global Numerical Guidance Indicates Mean Troughs Over The Pacific Northwest And The East, With A Mean Ridge Just East Of The Rockies. A Shortwave Will Recarve The Eastern Trough Early In The Period, Bringing Yet Another Surge Of Continental Polar Air All The Way To The Southern End Of The Appalachians, Along With The Attendant Bout Of Showers.

Right On The Heels Of The Eastern Wave, New Shortwave Energy Is Expected To Flatten The Top Of The Rockies Ridge, Spreading Height Falls, Lower Temperatures, And Widespread Precipitation From The Pacific Northwest To The Northern High Plains. This Flattening Of The
Ridge Will Send The Heights Over The East Rebounding In Turn Late
In The Period--At Least Temporarily--With A Commensurate Northward Shift In Rainfall.

Relied On The Most Recent European Centre Ensemble Means For The Synoptic Basics This Forecast Cycle, Where The Surface Highs And Lows Were More Clearly Tracked, And Any Deterministic Extremes Were Toned Down.

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