US Preliminary Extended Forecast thru Jun 21

The Global Numerical Models Continue To Indicate A Moderately
Amplified Longwave Pattern Across The United States At The Medium
Range, With A Mean Ridge Over The Rockies, And A Broad Mean Trough Over The East.

The Polar Jet Is Still South Of Climatology, With The Attendant Anomalous Dynamics An Ongoing Volatile Pairing With The High Theta-E Air Of Summer. Organized Rainfall Is Expected Over The Far Northwest Where Shortwaves Top The Ridge, And Over Most Of The Nation East Of The Rockies.

Relied On The Most Recent European Centre Ensemble Mean As A Synoptic Guide For This Forecast, Which Afforded More Robust Surface Highs And Lows Than The Last Few Gefs Means, And Sidestepped The Usual Extremes Inherent To The Previous Runs.


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