US Preliminary Extended Forecast thru Jul 27

The Global Numerical Models Are Indicating A Very Active Pattern For The Peak Of Summer This Medium Range Period.

The Flow Will Once Again Return To The Common Signature Of This Season: A Western Ridge And Eastern Trough.

Fortunately, The Gfs And Ecmwf Are Both On The Same Large-Scale, Synoptic Page. The Guidance Has Been Trending More Energetic With The Monsoon Associated With The Western Ridge, And Sharper With The Amplitude Of The Eastern Trough--Both Changes Resulting In More Rainfall Across Larger Chunks Of The Nation.

Over The West, The Old, Retrograded Upper Low Is Expected To
Recurve Around The Ridge, Enhancing Both Dry And Wet Thunderstorms Over California And Eventually The Northern Intermountain Region. Other Monsoonal Impulses Are Slated To Be Drawn Into The Four Corners Region, Some Of Which Appear Intense Enough To Trigger Rainfall That Could Result In Flash Flooding In The Normally Vulnerable Terrain.

In The East, The Sharpening Trough Is Expected To Send An Active
Baroclinic Zone All The Way To The Gulf States, With Another Rich
Tap Of Tropical Moisture Fueling Significant Rainfall Over Many
Areas Already Well Soaked This Summer.

One Difference Between This Amplification And The Others During The Past Several Weeks Is That An Impressively Cold Upper Low Is Progged By Both The Gfs And Ecmwf To Dip Into The Great Lakes Late In The Period, Which Should Really Take A Bite Out Of The Crunch Of High Summer Over The Upper Midwest.

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