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US Preliminary Extended Forecast thru Jul 25

...Pattern Overview And Guidance/Uncertainty Assessment...

Medium Range Models And Ensembles Are Now Well On Their Way
Converging Upon A More Common Mid-Larger Scale Pattern Evolution Aloft As Highlighted By An Evolving Nern Pacific Mean Trough And Downstream Wrn Conus Ridge/Ern Conus Trough.

Consensus Has Finally Been Achieved On The Retrogression Of A Short Range Closed Low Well Offshore The Pac Nw...But Some Smaller Scale Differences Remain With Strength/Amplitude Of The Conus Ridge/Trough And Shortwave Details Of Flow Rounding The Ridge And Entering The Trough. As A Result There Continues To Be Some Forecast Spread With Surface Evolution From The Plains Toward The Appalachians.

Reduced Forecast Spread And Uncertainty Though Lends Preference To A Concensus Guidance Solution For The Medium Range Period To
Downplay Lingering Smaller Scale System Variance. This Maintains
Good Wpc Continuity.

Accordingly...Wpc Medium Range Surface Fronts/Pressures And 500 Mb Progs Were Primarily Derived From A Blend Of The Compatable And Seemingly Reasonable 18 Utc Gfs/Gefs Mean And 12 Utc Ecmwf/Ecmwf Ensemble Mean.

...Sensible Weather Highlights...

A Front Should Stall Once It Reaches A Srn Mid Atlc-Nrn High Plains Orientation And One Or More Waves May Provide Added Focus For Convection Over The Course Of The Period.

Activity Along This Front As Well As Typical Diurnal Convection Over The Southeast May Be Locally Hvy.

Expect Near To Below Normal Daytime Temps Over Most Srn/Ern Areas.

Monsoonal Mstr Will Support Periods Of Convection And Below Normal Daytime Temps Over The Srn Rockies And Southwest.

The Nrn Half Of The Interior West Should See Above Normal Highs With Some Anomalies Reaching Plus 10-15f Primarily During The Weekend...With Some Moderation Next Week.


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