US Preliminary Extended Forecast thru Aug 17

The Global Models And Ensembles Are In Good Agreement On The
Persistent Eastern Pacific Trough...Western Us Ridge...And Eastern
Us Trough Next Week Through Sat 17 Aug.

Accordingly...Persistent Areas Of Above Normal Temperatures Are Expected In The West And Below Normal In The East To Central Us.

Near And South Of The Front In The Southeast A Showery Period Over
Multiple Days Is Expected Across The Southeast And Gulf Coast As
Frontal Lift Occurs Where The Models/Means Show 2-2.25 Inches Of
Precipitable Water Available And Upper Divergence/Lower
Convergence Couplets.

The Operational 18z Gfs/12z Ecmwf Models/18z Gefs/12z Ecmwf
Ensemble Means Were In Good Agreement Days 3-5 With The 18z Gfs Becoming Higher Amplitude With The Eastern Pacific Trough And 12z Ecmwf Becoming Higher Amplitude With The Ms Valley Trough Vs The Large Majority Of Ensemble Members From The 12-18z Gefs/12z Ecmwf.

There Is Better Agreement Among The Ensemble Means...With The
Naefs Bias Corrected Ensemble Mean Clustering Well With The 18z
Gefs Mean And 12z Ecmwf Ensemble Mean.

Blending The Respective Means Adjudicates Differences In The Amplitude Of The Eastern Pacific Trough And The Longitude Of The Eastern Us Trough Next Fri-Sat 16-17 Aug.


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