US Final Extended Weather thru Nov 25

General Flow Pattern
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The General Flow Pattern Is Expected To Re-Amplify This Period, With Troughing Becoming Reestablished Offshore The West Coast,
Ridging Developing Across The Rockies, With Downstream Troughing Across The Midwest/Great Lakes/Appalachians Luring A Slow-Moving Deep Cyclone From The Neighborhood Of Bermuda To Atlantic Canada.

Enough Separation Exists Between Weakening Troughing Across
Nunavut And A System Crossing Near The Central Us/Canadian Border To Help Allow The Border System To Close Off Aloft. The Guidance Generally Agrees On This Scenario.

Model Preference
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Differences Amongst The Remaining Guidance Are Fairly Small Across North America, With The 12z Gfs Trending Strongly Towards The Previous Model Preference. However, Problems Exist Downstream Across The Western Subtropical Atlantic As The 00z Canadian Becomes Out Of Phase/Quicker Than The Remainder Of The Guidance As Early As Thursday, While The 12z Ecmwf Is One Of The Slowest/Farthest West.

Cyclone Phase Space Diagrams From Florida State University Indicate That Chances For Subtropical Cyclogenesis With The Western Atlantic Cyclone Appear To Have Decreased Since This Time Yesterday, With The Guidance Advertising A Shallow Warm Core System More Reminiscent Of A Warm Core Occlusion/ Seclusion.

Closer To Home, While 00z Global Ensemble Spread Is Larger Than
Average Near The Us/Canadian Border, The Expected Amplification Of
The Flow Pattern Leads To Greater Confidence In The Overall
Forecast.

The 00z Gefs Mean Was A Bit More Washed Out With Its Expected Pattern (Particularly The System Near The Us/Canadian Border) Than The 00z Ecmwf Ensemble Mean, So Elected Not To Base
The Forecast On The Gefs Mean. The Model Choice Was A 00z
Ecmwf/00z Ukmet Compromise Through Friday Before Switching To A
00z Ecmwf/00z Ecmwf Ensemble Mean Compromise Thereafter, Adding Detail To The Pressure To Avoid Washing Out The Pressures. The 12z Gfs Should Be A Reasonable Alternative To This Choice Into Saturday Morning. Confidence Is Above Average In This Model Preference.

Weather Impacts
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A Deep Cyclone Moving Between Bermuda And Atlantic Canada Is
Expected To Maintain A Relatively Dry And Cool Pattern Across The
Lower 48 East Of The Rockies, Keeping Any Moisture Intrusions From
The Gulf Of Mexico Relatively Shallow And Weak Through The Period.

As A Pacific System Tracks Along The Us/Canadian Border, Upslope
Precipitation (Valley Rains And Mountain Snows) Is Expected Across
The Pacific Northwest And Northern Continental Divide Wednesday
Into Thursday.

As The System Emerges Into The Plains And Midwest, Limited Gulf Moisture Will Be Lured Northward, Spreading Light To Moderate Rains From The Southern Plains/Midwest/Great Lakes Into The Central Appalachians And Northeast Between Thursday And Next
Weekend.

As Troughing Becoming Re-Established In The Eastern Pacific, Renewed Precipitation Is In The Cards Across The Pacific Northwest, Potentially Heavy Across Washington State, From Friday Through Next Weekend.


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