Preliminary Surface And H5 Graphics Through Day 5 Were A Blend Of
The 17/00z Ecmwf-Gfs Operational Solutions To Maintain Active
Troughing Along The West Coast Invof 140w And Off The East Coast
Invof 60w-70w And Along/South Of 40n.
The Operational Ukmet/Ecmwf Solutions Have Good Continuity With A
Surface Cyclone Near 50n 90w And Its Cold Front Sweeping Through
The Upper/Mid-Ms Valley. Its In And Around The 23/00z Time Frame
That The 00z Operational Gfs Begins To Lose Continuity With All
To Maintain Some Continuity In The Day 5.5 To Day 7 Forecast From
The Mid Shift...Blended Some Of The 17/00z Gefs Means And 17/00z
Ecmwf Ensemble Means (A Total Of 70%) And Kept The Operational
Ecmwf Solution (30%) In The Mix.
The Subtle Change In The Preference Away From The Gfs Has Implications For British Columbia/Alberta And The Pacific Northwest ... Allowing A Shortwave To Move Into Oregon/Nrn California On Day 7.
Off The East Coast...The Difference Is To 'Synch' The H5 Trough Axis With The Surface Front.
12z Cycle...Along The West Coast No Changes Were Made To The
Preliminary Progs. However...
The 12z Gfs/Ukmet And Canadian Differ Significantly From The
Recently Arrived 12z Ecmwf Between Days 3-5 Along The East Coast.
Medium Range Coordinated A 12z Ukmet/Gfs Compromise For The
Frontal Structure And Spot Low Positions. This Allows For Some
Wraparound Moisture To Present Itself Across The Mid Atlantic
States Per Gfs/Gefsmeans...Vs The Dry 12z Ukmet/Ecmwf Solutions.
The 12z Ecmwf Appeared Too Weak Over Southern Canada On Day 5 And Consequently Downstream...Has Little To No Surface Reflection In The Western Atlantic After Day 5.
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