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US Final Extended Weather thru May 9

...Overview...

An Unusual Amplified Upper-Flow Pattern Will Largely Remain Stay In Place Over The Next 7 Days With Ridging Planted Over South
Central Plains And Southeast Canada.

Much Of The Sensible Weather Directed Over The Conus Will Be Associated With A Pair Of Closed...Cutoff Lows.

One Closed Low Initially In The Mid-Ms Valley Should Track Slowly Eastward Before Exiting The Coast About One Week From Now.

A Second Closed Low Takes An Unusual Southwestward Track Through The Pacific Northwest...Into Northern California...Then Offshore Before Looping Back Into Southern California. Eventually... This Energetic West Coast Cutoff Migrates Eastward Through The Great Basin And Four Corners Region.

...Model Preferences...

In The East... The Models And Ensembles Have Continued An
East-Southeastward Trend With The Track Of The Closed Cutoff Low.
The 2/00z Deterministic Gfs/Ukmet/Ecmwf Were Converging Upon A
Solution For The Cutoff To Meander Across The Southeast...Then
Depart The East Coast Invof The Mid Atlantic States By Day 7.

Surface And H5 Graphics Manual Graphics Easily Maintained
Continuity With The Previous Progs Through Day 5 (Which
Incorporated Aspects Of The 1/12z Deterministic Ecmwf/Ukmet Along
With The 1/12z Ec Ensemble Means)...Then Utilized The 2/00z Ec
Ensembles Means And Aspects Of The 2/00z Ecmwf And 2/12z
Deterministic Gfs.

In The West... Hard To Call This System Any Sort Of Well-Behaved
'Slider'. Mainly Because The Primary Vorticity Center Originates
In Southern Alberta...Then Takes A Fortuitous Track Southwestward
Through Idaho And Eastern Oregon Before Exiting The West Coast
Across Northern California.

Fortuitous In A Weather Sense--For Early May...This System Then Merges With A Closed Low Already Seperated From The Mid Latitude Westerlies (Invof 30n 140w). The End Result Will Be An Energetic Circulation That Is Strongly Sheared...Will Have Unusually High Pw Values For This Time Of Year (~ 1 Inch) And Contain A Compact Cold Core (Invof M20c) That Lends Favorably To A Steep Mid-Level Lapse Rate Environment.

...Sensible Weather Highlights...

Both Cutoff Circulations Are Trending Much Wetter Than Previous
Progs....Especially Across Southern Appalachia...The Piedmont... Florida And Across The Higher Elevations Of California.

Cooler Than Normal Conditions Are Anticipated Invof Of These Deep
H5 Cutoffs And Across The Northern Plains.


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