US Final Extended Weather thru May 5

...General Overview...

An Anomalous Longwave Trough Digging Into The North Central U.S.
Towards The Middle Of The Week Will Dominate The Medium Range
Forecast Over The Lower 48.

A Potent Cold Front Will Push Through The Midwest...Central/ Southern Plains...Central/Southern Rockies...And Great Basin On Wednesday/Thursday As The Main Trough Axis Quickly Dives Southeastward Through The Nation.

By The End Of The Work Week...The Mid-Level Energy Will Get Sandwiched Between Strong Ridging Building In Over Both Coasts Of The Country. With Nowhere To Go...The System Is Expected To Close Off Over The Central Conus And Remain Relatively Stagnant There Through Next Weekend.

A Piece Of Southern Stream Energy Crossing The Gulf Coast States
Mid/Late This Week Will Have An Impact On Rainfall Amounts Over
Florida...But Any Sort Of Surface Cyclogenesis With This Feature
Seems Like A Less Likely Scenario.

...Model Evaluation And Preferences...

Deterministic Guidance Appears To Be Converging On A Solution For
The Exact Track/Location Of The Upper Low Late Next Week...And
Even The Individual Ensemble Members Are Showing Far Less Spread In Today's 00z Run Than Previous Day's Runs. The Majority Of Models Are Advertising A Closed Low Over Or Just West Of The
Middle Mississippi Valley By Friday...With The Exception Of The
00z Cmc Which...Like Yesterday's 00z Run...Is A Far Western
Outlier.

Today's 00z Guidance Is Even In Fairly Good Agreement Towards The
End Of The Forecast Period With A Possible Upstream Kicker System
Diving Into The Rockies/Great Basin By The End Of Next Weekend.
However...There Is A Fair Amount Of Ensemble Spread With This
Feature...And The 06z Gfs Coming In Much Weaker With Kicker System Also Indicates There Is Still Some Uncertainty In The Day 6-7
Forecast.

A Blend Of The 00z Ecmwf/06z Gfs Was Used For The Day 3-5 Forecast In Order To Reason Out Any Of The Small Detail Differences Among The Agreeable Deterministic Guidance. Due To Existing Ensemble Spread Towards The End Of The Forecast Period...And Because Of The Usual Difficulties In Forecasting Cut-Off Systems... The 00z Ecmwf Ensemble Mean/Gefs Mean Were Incorporated To The Day 6-7 Forecast.

...Sensible Weather Highlights...

Temperatures Will Drop Significantly Behind The Potent Cold Front
Crossing The Country During The Middle Of The Week As Strong High
Pressure Builds Down From The North.

Showers And Thunderstorms Will Be Possible With The Passing Front...And Spc Has Already Highlighted A Severe Weather Threat For Their Day 4-8 Outlook.

As The Boundary Slows Down And Taps Into Increasing Amounts Of Gulf Moisture Late This Week...Some Heavier And More Organized
Precipitation Should Develop With This System.

In Addition...Temperatures Could Be Low Enough To Support May Snows To The Northwest/Southwest Of The Surface Low.

Otherwise...Precipitation Will Spread Through The Southeast But
Then Should Be Blocked From Any Progress Into The Mid-Atlantic And
Certainly The Northeast Near The Upper Ridge And Strong Surface
High.

Temperatures In General Should Stay Well Below Normal Between The Rockies And Appalachians...But Above Normal In The Northeast
Especially Away From The Coast. Temperatures Will Also Be Above
Normal Over The Western U.S. Underneath The Building Upper Ridge.


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