Early Next Week Breakdown Of Rex Blocking Nwd From The N-Central Pacific And Subsequent Energy Transfer And Nrn Stream/Alaskan Influence Leads To Mid-Late Week Amplified Mid-Upper Level Trough/Low Developmemnt Over The Gulf Of Ak.
This Complex Transition Leads To Downstream Ridge Amplification Over Wrn Noam That Allows For Multiple Embedded Shortwave Impulses To Carve An Emerging Amplified Mean Trough With An Associated And Eventual Strong Convection Focusing Frontal/Low System Slated To Dig Sewd From The Nwrn Us Mon/Tue And Through The East-Central Us Fri.
Medium Range Guidance Actually Offers A Reasonably Consistent Flow Pattern At Larger Scales Despite Small-Mid Scale Embedded System Interaction/Wavelength Spacing Uncertainty. Trough Amplification And Progression Late Week Toward The Ern Us Seems Problematic Due To Downstream Blocking Eminating From The N Atlantic So Guidance Will Likely Continue To Wrestle With Progression And Amplitide Specifics...With Forecast Spread Increasing More Significantly By Days 6/7 Thu/Next Fri.
Meanwhile...Forecast Uncertainty Is Also Evident Within A Less
Defined Srn Stream Whose Lingering Lead Gulf Coast Troffing Aloft
And Associated And Weakening/Wavy Lead Stationary Front Offers
Potential For Later Week Sern Us/Fl Coastal Low Formation And
Heavy Rainfall Threat.
Overall Given Nature Of The Flow And Guidance...The Wpc Medium
Range Guidance Suite Was Primarily Derived From A Blend Of The 00
Utc Gfs/Ecmwf Ensemble Means. However...Our Solution For Days 3
Into 5 Mon-Wed In Addition To The Ensemble Means Also Added In A
Composite Determinitsic Model Blend (00 Utc Gfs/Ecmwf/ Canadian/ Ukmet) To Infuse More Detail In A Period Of Relatively Lower Forecast Spread. The Wpc Solution Maintained Good Wpc Forecast Continuity.
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