US Final Extended Weather thru Mar 3

Winter Storm System Will Be In Full Swing And Tracking
East-Northeastward Across The Midwest And Northeast Days 3/4.

Along/Ahead Of The System's Cold Front...A Wet Pattern Is Anticipated ... With Significantly Drier And Colder Canadian Air
Surging Into The Gulf Of Mexico.

Between The Ecmwf And Gfs Model Packages...The Manual Graphics Did Find The 24/00z Ec Ensemble Means Consistent With Its Previous 4-5 00z Cycle Runs...With The 24/06z Gefs Mean In Lockstep With The Key Features Of The Flow Pattern. There Were Some Differences In The Central And Eastern Pacific Beyond Day 5...To Trend Away From The Gfs Package.

For Day 5-7...The Overall Theme In The Flow Pattern For North
America Is For A Split-Flow Pattern To Become A Mainstay Along The
West Coast...With The 'Split' Occurring Invof 45n-50n 140w And
Downstream Confluent Flow Reappearing Along 40n Latitude From The Lower Mo Valley Eastward To The Delmarva.

Along The Base Of The Upper-Level Trough...The Northern Stream Energy Originating In West Central Canada Will Likely Be A Series Of Alberta Clippers. This Will Provide The Light Precipitation For The Northeast Quarter Of The Nation.

The One Challenge And With Little Detail At The Moment...Will Be The Establishment Of An Energetic Southern Stream...Which Invariably Develops Once The Split-Flow Pattern Becomes More Of A Quasi-Stationary Feature In The East Pacific.

What Has Been A Consistent Precursor This Season...To The
Transition Pattern And Southern Stream Influences That The
Mainland Will Be Observing Around The End Of This Forecast
Period...Is A Deep System And Vortex In The Western Aleutians And
Off The Kamchatka Peninsula Shearing Out A Moderate Cutoff/Closed
Mid-Level To The Northeast Of Hawai'i.

In The Extended...Mainly Days 6-7...We Are Seeing More Of This Pattern Emerging In The Western Pacific.


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