US Final Extended Weather thru Mar 24

Pattern Overview...

The Blocky Hemispheric Circulation Is Marked By Three Strong
Positive Height Anomalies.

The First Is Through The Bering Sea While The Second And Third Merge Between The North Pole And The Davis Strait.

Teleconnections From Each Area Support Ridging Just Off The West Coast With Broad Troughing From The Central Conus Eastward.

This Very Negative Ao Pattern Supports Below Normal Temps East Of The Rockies As A Main Polar Front Stays Well South Near The Gulf Coast.

Guidance/Uncertainty Assessment/Forecaster Reasonings...

Water Vapor Loops Show A Vigorous Storm Now Lifting Well Northeast Of Hawaii Near 150w. Models And Ensembles Have Converged On A More Common System And Downstream Flow Solution For The Conus Wed/Thu...Lending Good Predictability.
Wpc Guidance Blends The 00 Utc Gfs/Ecmwf.

However...Forecast Spread/Uncertainty And Run-Run Continuity
Increases Significantly Heading Into Next Weekend.

The Most Prominant Guidance Difference Aloft Concerns The Digging And Ewd Ejection Of Energy Out From The Wrn Us Then S-Central And Sern Us Fri-Sun...Along With The Associated Lower Atmospheric Response.

Recent Ecmwf/Ecmwf Ensembles In Particular Have Offered More
Suppressed Solutions Than Recent Gfs/Gefs. Differences Aloft
Become Crystal Clear By Next Sun...Albeit Without Good Run-Run

The 00 Utc Ecmwf Has An Amplified Trough Over The Sw Us While The 00/06 Utc Gfs Runs Instead Offer A Deep Sern Us/Mid-Atlc Coastal Storm.

Ensembles Are Mixed/In The Middle But Overall Favor A Solution With Emphasis Over The Srn/Sern Us.

This Seems Very Reasonable As Initially Vigorous Systems Like This One Tracking Rather Bodily Inland From The Pacific Are More Likely To Maintain Good Stream Identity With A Better Than Average Linear
Motion Downstream.

Latest Wpc Progs Fri-Sun/D5-7 Were Primarily Derived From A Blend
Of The 00 Utc Gefs Ensemble Mean And Less Defined 00 Utc Ecmwf
Ensemble Mean. Wpc Progs Were Then Manually Adjusted To Depict
Slightly Better System Organization Consistent With Uncertainty And A Less Suppressed Sern Us Solution Than Overnight Progs Given
Amplitude Aloft/Dynamic Potential. A Wsr Flight Later Today Out
From Hawaii May Be Able To Provide More Data For Upcoming 00 Utc

Sensible Weather Highlights...

Exiting System In The Northeast Will Keep Generally Light Lake
Effect/Enhanced Snow Over The Region Wed-Fri/D3-5 Before

A Wet System Entering The Pac Nw Midweek Will Spread Modest Rain/Snow And Some Enhanced Terrain Amounts Thru The West
Before Settling Into The S-Central Us Then Gulf Coast Fri-Sat/D5-6
Where Increased Moisture Inflow May Lead To Heavier Qpf...Including A Possible Winter Weather Stripe On The Nrn Edge Of The Overall Pcpn Shield Given The Cold Pattern.

Emergence From The Sern Us By Sun Offers Potential For Coastal Cyclogensis Given Possible Dynamic Support.

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