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US Final Extended Weather thru Mar 16

...Subtropical Plume Targeting Heavy Rainfall In Washington State...

...Overview And Model Preferences...

The High Latitudes Continue To Show A Blocky Forecast Continuing
Through The Medium Range Period.

Ridging Through The Bering Strait Should Spin Off An Upper High That Migrates To The North Pole While An Upper Low Over Far Nw Canada Retrogrades Westward Into Alaska .

This Should Encourage Ridging Over The Sw States With Broad Troughing Centered Along The East Coast.

The Models And Ensembles Have Come Around To Much Better Agreement In The Forecast With Generally Only Minor Timing/ Amplitude Differences Through Sat/D7.

The 00z-06z Gfs Runs Become A Bit Out Of Step With The 06z Gefs Mean And 00z Ecmwf Ensemble Mean By Thu/D5 But Otherwise Compared Well To The Ecmwf.

The Largest Differences Were Noted In The Northeast Pacific Due To A Complicated Flow Pattern/Evolution.

The Ukmet Offered A Reasonable Solution As Well But The Canadian Departed Most Noticeable From The Greatest Ensemble Clustering.

...Sensible Weather Highlights...

In The Northwest... There Will Be A Continued Focus On A Subtropical Connection In The Eastern Pacific Beneath A Deep
Cutoff Low Invof 40n/155w And A Quasi-Stationary Ridge Along 120w.

The Deterministic Models Continue To Waver Somewhat On The
Timing/Strength Of A Series Of Progressive Shortwave Systems
Migrating From The East Central Pacific To The Pacific Northwest
Coast... Then Migrating These 'Milder' Subtropical Airmass Systems
Into The Northern Rockies.

Model/Ensemble Qpf Has Been Hovering In The 2-3 Inch Range In 48hrs Days 4-5 And About Half That Days 6-7 In Coastal And Higher Elevations Of Washington. However... By Day 6-7... A Major Portion Of The Upper-Level Trough In The Eastern Pacific Will Be Migrating Into The West Coast...With Active Weather And A Deep Surge Of Maritime Polar From The Gulf Of Alaska Spreading Through Much Of The Northwest... And Northern California/The Great Basin... Squashing/ Elongating The Ridge To The South.

In The East... The Persistence Of An Upper-Level Low In Eastern
Canada And The Northeast Will Provide An Alley Way For Canadian
Cold Fronts And Secondary Surface Wave Development Along The Base Of The Upper-Level Trough /Invof The Outer Banks/.

The Overall Flow Pattern Aloft And Leading Edge Of The Canadian Airmass Boundary Favors A 'Confluent' Storm Track That Wraps The Bulk Of The Strengthening Cyclogenesis Off The East Coast And Into The Canadian Maritimes... With Much Of The Intense Weather Coming Ashore In Newfoundland And Labrador.

But In A Cold Northwest Flow... The Medium Range Temperature Forecast In The Upper/Eastern Great Lakes... New England... And Along The Northeast Coast Remains Below Normal.

Elsewhere... Looks Like A Dry/Breezy Spring-Time Weather Pattern
Tracking Through The Central/Southern Plains Through The Period...
As The Upper-Level Ridge Axis Continues To Amplify And Sweep
Eastward To A Position Near 105w Longitude On Day 7.

Warmer Conditions Are Projected For The Southern Plains And Southwest... With 70s/80s And Possibly A Few Lower 90s Anticipated For Much Of The Southern Plains But Especially In The Sw Deserts And Sw Tx.

However... There Will Be A Rather Distinct Nw-To-Se Demarcation
Line For The Advancing Warmth Across The Northern And North
Central Plains. Generally Along And Northeast Of The Missouri
Valley Is Where Highs Will Struggle To Reach The 60s.


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