May 20, 2013
A Benign Pattern For Mid Winter Is Indicated By The Global Numerical Models At The Medium Range, With The Main Band Of Westerlies Splitting Around The Contiguous United States.
The Prominent Features Include A Mean Ridge Over The Southeastern United States, A Mean Trough Over Eastern Canada, And What Amounts To A No Man's Land Of Variable Flow Over The West And Adjacent High Plains.
A Blend Of The 00z/31 Ecmwf And Ecens Mean Afforded A Reasonable Middle Ground For The Current Manual Forecast, With
Good Correlation From The Gefs Mean And Ukmet.
The Most Vigorous Shortwave To Threaten The Nation Is Expected To Pass Off The Southeast Coast Late Day 5, With The Degree Of Confluence Over The Mid Atlantic States The Limiting Factor In How Much Of The Eastern Seaboard Is Directly Impacted.
The Balance Of The Guidance Suggests An Offshore Track, But There Is Certainly Room For Trending Toward A Wetter Scenario.
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