US Final Extended Weather thru Jan 24

...Bitter Cold For The Dakotas...Upper Great Lakes And Portions Of
Northern Maine...

Was Able To Maintain Very Good Continuity With The Previous
Package With The Only Modification To The Pattern Occurring On
Days 5-6 Across The Pacific Northwest And Southwest Canada.

As Mentioned In The Early Morning Discussion...The Upper-Level Ridge In The West Rapidly Erodes Along Its Northern Periphery...And A New Northern Stream System Migrates Across The Northwest Quarter Of The Nation During The Latter Portion Of The Medium Range Forecast.

Through Day 5...Operational Ecmwf/Ukmet/Gfs Were In Good Agreement Along With The Ecmwf Ensemble Means With Well-Advertised Arctic Outbreak Will Deliver Single-Digit High Temperature Readings For North Dakota...Minnesota...Northern Wisconsin...The Upper Peninsula Of Michigan And Northern South Dakota/Maine.

Low Temperatures (Sub-Zero Readings) Will Be Common With Precipitation Limited/Confined To The Lakes And Downwind Locations. The 17/00z Gfs Gets A Tad Faster Than The Ecmwf/Ukmet By Day 5 In The Base Of The Eastern Conus Trough.

The Southern Extent Of This Airmass Will Extend Into The Deep South With Sub-32f High Temperatures Extending From The Central Mid Atlantic States/Delmarva...Westward Into The Ohio Valley And Mid Mississippi Valley.

Overnight Lows Below 32f Will Extend Southward To 30n Longitude. Along The Southern Edge Of This Arctic Airmass...And Beneath An Intensifying 250mb Jet Axis...Wave Development Is Expected...With Very Light Snowfall Streaking Across The Central Plains...Ozarks And The Southeast.

The Emergence Of A Coastal Wave Invof The Carolinas On Day 4-5 (22/00z-23/00z) Brings The Threat Of More Widespread Snowfall From The Outer Banks To Southern New England.

For Days 6-7...Surface Graphics Carry A Pacific System Eastward
Across Washington...Oregon And The Northern Rockies. This System
Should Bring Another Round Of Colder Maritime Air Inland With
Low-Elevation Snowfall Along/Immediately Downwind Of The Cascades And Moderate Rain/Snow Events To The Northern Rockies.

Downwind Of The Rockies...Lee Side Cyclogenesis Is Expected To Intensify Along Southern Canadian Rockies In Response To The Inland Push Of Pacific Moisture...And Track Across The Northern Plains And Upper Ms Valley On Day 7.

The 17/00z Guidance Did Trend A Tad Slower Overall With The Progression Of The Fast-Moving Mid-Level Wave Tracking Eastward Across Washington...But With Moderate/Slightly Above Average Confidence...Day 7 Should Be A Day Of Cold Advection In The Pacific Northwest.


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