May 19, 2013
Used The 00z/16 Deterministic Ecmwf For The Fronts And Pressures
Day 3, With A Gradual Transition Toward The Ecens Mean Thereafter
To Address The Uncertainties In Synoptic Detail Across The Nation.
As A Whole, The Pattern Is A Dry One For The Interior Of The Contiguous United States, With Continental Polar And Arctic Air
Dominating East Of The Rockies.
The Biggest Threats For Significant Precipitation This Period Are Along The New England Coast Day 6 And The Pacific Northwest Coast Day 7. The New England Coast Will Be Vulnerable To Snow From A Clipper System That Should Begin To Deepen Upon Reaching The North Wall Of The Gulf Stream.
Unlike The 00z/16 Gem Global And A Couple Other Recent
Deterministic Solutions, The 00z/16 European Centre Guidance
Indicates That This System Will Be Embedded Deep In The
Westerlies--Without The Baroclinic Advent Of The Subtropics.
Sprawling Cyclones Are Contraindicated In The "Cold Air," Though
Smaller Scale, Intense Lows--Particularly Near The Gulf Stream-- Have A Storied Past That Includes Heavy Snow Wrapped Back Into Coastal Regions.
Over The Pacific Northwest, There Is Evidence That The Ridge Will Be Breached At The End Of The Period, Allowing A Frontal System To Come Ashore With Precipitation.
|
