May 23, 2013
Used The 00z/14 Ecmwf For The Fronts And Pressures For Days 3
Through 5, Then Switched To The 00z/14 Ecens Mean Days 6 And 7 To Mitigate The Synoptic Detail Uncertainty Inherent To That Time
Range.
The 00z/14 Gfs--Upon Which The Latest Mos Is Based--Was A
Developed Outlier With The Wave Crossing The Great Lakes During
The Period.
The Gem Global And Ukmet Have Had A String Of Volatile Solutions.
The Deterministic Ecmwf, While Not Stable Either, Has Been Usable When It Has Jibed With Its Attendant Mean--As Is The Current Case.
The Pattern Is A Dry One As A Whole For The Nation, With A Ridge Over The West And Continental Polar And Arctic Air Pouring Into The Central And East.
While The Southeast Ridge Is Still In Place, A Couple More Waves May Be Forced Far Enough Northward To Produced Stripes Of Light Precipitation From The Tennessee Valley Eastward To The Mid Atlantic And Carolina Coasts.
In Terms Of The Arctic Air, The Models Have Been Advertising An
Eventual Transport Of The Superfrigid Air Over Canada In The
Northern Tier Of States For Some Time Now--Usually At The End Of
The Medium Range Or Beyond.
The Backing Off Of This Predicted Transport Has Not Been Very Prepossessing In Terms Of Confidence In The Event.
Still, Feel There Is Currently Enough Critical Mass In The Guidance To Introduce Significant Negative Temperature Anomalies Over The North Central States Days 6 And 7 In This Forecast Package.
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