...A More Active/Amplified Weather Pattern This Week...
A Potent Lead Srn Stream Closed Low Is Slated To Eject Newd From
Nrn Mexico/Rio Grande Valley Mid-Late Week As A Mid-Upper Level
Trough Approaching The West Coast Amplifies And Ridging Tries To
Take Hold Aloft Over The Sern Us.
The Ultimate Track And Timing Of The Ejecting Lead Closed Low Remains A Forecast Problem Midweek Into Next Weekend. Some Of The Timing/Track Differences Seen In Latest Guidance Seem To Best Correspond To Differences In Handling Of The Incoming Wrn Us Trough.
The Latest Few Gfs Runs Have Trended Slower With The Ejection Of
The Lead Srn Stream Closed Low But Not To The Extent Of The 00 Utc Ecmwf. That Ecmwf Run Holds More Digging Upstream Trough Energies Longer Off The West Coast And That Ultimately Allows A Slower To Eject Lead Srn Stream Closed Low To Eject More Bodily Ewd Into The Sern Us. The Last Few Runs Of The Ecmwf Have Not Be Very Run To Run Consistent With These Features...But Water Vapor Imagery Over The Ern Pacific Does Leaves The Door Open For More Hangback Ern Pacific Development.
That Said...Instead Prefer A Solution More In Line With 00 Utc Ecmwf Ensembles That Offers Better Hpc Continuity With These Main Features...Albeit Now Slightly Less Progressive.
This Solution Is Also Moderately More Amplified/Less Progressive Than Latest Gfs/Gefs Runs Into The West And Has A Lead Closed Low That Ejects More Overtop A Buidling Downstream Sern Us Ridge As Favored By Teleconnections.
Strong Dynamics With The Closed Low Aloft And Leading Gulf Inflow
Will Support Potential For Heavy Rainfall Over Portions Of The Srn
Plains E/Ne Into The Ms Valley Wed-Thu. Less Intense Activity
Should Spread Farther Newd With Time In A Lead Warming Pattern.
Meanwhile As The Cooling Ern Pacific Trough Begins To Move Into
The Wrn Us The Best Focus For Pcpn Should Be Over Favored Terrain From The Nrn Half Of The West Coast Into The Nrn Rockies Into Mid-Late Week With A Shield Of Relatively Lighter Activity
Spreading Sewd Through Ca And The Sw Late Week/Next Weekend ...Eventually Spreading Focus More Into The Plains.
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