US Final Extended Weather thru Jan 12

Guidance Is Thankfully In Much Better Agreement Today With The
Recently Quite Troublesome Handling Of Lead Srn Stream Closed Low Development/Progression Out From The Sw Us/Nw Mexico And Across The Central And Ern Us Over The Coming Week.

The Hpc Medium Range Product Suite Maintains Close Continuity With The Last Couple Of Days And Remains Primarily Derived From A Blend Of The Quite Compatable And Consistent 00 Utc Ecmwf/Ecmwf Ensembles.

Alternate Guidance Sources Have Now Come Into Agreement With This Less Progressive And Separate Srn Stream Closed Low
Solution...Especially Into Day 5/Thu.

This System Will Provide Focus For A Large Swath Of Precipitation Newd Out From The S-Central Us As Depicted On Our Medium Range Day 4-7 Conus Qpf Progs...Including A Threat For Some Heavy Thunderstorms/Rainfall.

In This Pattern...Warming Lead Temps May Limit Most Wintery Pcpn
To The Most Nrn/Nwrn Periphery Of The Overall Developing
Precipitation Shield.

Prefer A Solution By Days 6/7 Fri-Sat That Ejects A Organized But
Weakening System On A More Nwd Shifted Track Across The Great
Lakes/Nern Us Than A Composite Of The Full Envelope Of Guidance
Solutions...Probably Again Closest To The 00 Utc Ecmwf/Ecmwf
Ensemble Mean.

This Is Based On Consideration Of Potential For Sern Us Centered Height Rises Downstream Of Strong Amplificaton Of A W-Central Us Mid-Upper Level Trough. Toward That End...Forecast Agreement And Confidence Remains Above Normal In A Transition To A Highly Amplified Pattern Aloft With An Ern Pacific Ridge...A Cooling/ Unsettling Wrn-Central Noam Trough...And Warming Se Us/Wrn
Atlantic Ridge.

A Main Precipitation Pcpn Focus Over The Nw Us Tue/Wed With
Mid-Upper Level Trough Amplification Should Dynamically Expand
Across Much Of The Wrn Us Thu-Sat As Pronounced Additional Digging Of Energies With Best Activity Focusing Over Favored Terrain.

This Preferred Approach Also Yields A Good Compromise For
Positioning Of A Lead And Wavy Surface Front Forecast To Extend
From The Great Lakes Swwd Into The Plains By Days 6-7 Next

This Increasingly Baroclinic Zone Should Become Quite Well Defined With Time And Should Gradually Transition Into An Effective Weather Focus.

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