US Final Extended Weather thru Jan 1

General Pattern
An Active Weather Pattern Will Continue Across The Conus During
The Medium Range Period.

Deterministic Guidance Is In Agreement With Quickly Lifting A Coastal Storm Into The Canadian Maritimes At The Start Of The Forecast Period...And Then Developing A Second Storm Off The Eastern Seaboard Saturday Into Sunday.

Models Are Also Similar With Amplifying An Upper Trough As It Digs Into The Western U.S. This Weekend. Despite The Fairly Good Agreement Among Deterministic Models...A Decent Amount Of Noise Develops Within Individual Ensemble Members...Hinting At Some Uncertainty In The Forecast.

Model Differences
In The East...

The 00z Gfs/Ecmwf/Ukmet All Suggest A Surface Low Near The Northern Gulf Coast Saturday Morning Will Track Northeastward Out Into The Atlantic And Then Intensify Near Cape Hatteras By Saturday Evening.

The Models Then Quickly Push The Storm Northeastward Away From The East Coast On Sunday.

The 00z Gefs/Ecmwf Ensemble/Cmc Ensemble Means Also All Support The Idea Of Some Sort Of Coastal Storm Off North Carolina By Saturday Morning...But Individual Ensemble Members Still Show A Large Amount Of Spread With This System. The 06z Gfs Also Indicated Some Uncertainty With This Forecast...With Its 06z Run Straying Away From Its 00z Run.

The Latest Gfs Now Favors The Idea Of A More Dominant Northern Low Tracking West Of The Southern/Central Appalachians...And Then Ends Up Intensifying A Low Off The East Coast Much Farther North And Offshore.

Out West...

Models Still Are Struggling With The Exact Timing Of
Bringing A Trough Into The Western U.S. And Amplifying The Energy
As It Digs Into The Southwest. In General...The Gfs/Gefs Mean Are
On The Faster Side Of Model Spread With Bringing Height Falls Into
The Pacific Northwest On Friday And Then Are Also Fairly Quick To
Separate The Energy And Close It Off Over Southern California/ Northern California Early Next Week. On The Flip Side...The 00z Ecmwf Is One Of The Slower Solutions With This Feature...But The 00z Ecmwf Ensemble Mean Fits Within The Model Spread.

Model Preferences
The Day 3-5 Forecast Consisted Of A Blend Of The 00z Ecmwf/Ecmwf
Ensemble Mean. The Ecmwf Had Support From The Ukmet...But Was Blended With Its Ensemble Mean Since It Appeared To Be A Bit
Strong With The Surface Low Developing Off Of Cape Hatteras...And
The Deterministic Ecmwf Also Seemed To Be Too Slow With Bringing
Height Falls Into The Pacific Northwest On Friday. After Day 5... The Forecast Relied Heavily On The 00z Gefs/Ecmwf Ensemble Mean Due The Uncertainty And Large Amount Of Spread In The Guidance With The Trough Digging Into The West.

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