US Final Extended Weather thru Feb 9

...General Flow Pattern...

The Upper Vortex Positioned Over Hudson Bay Will Retreat Northward
Over The Next Week To Near 70n Over The Canadian Archipelago
/Nunavut/.

This Should Allow The Return Of A Split Flow Pattern Over The Conus With Weak Northern Stream Clipper Systems In The Northern Central/Eastern States And A More Significant System Moving Through The Southwest By The End Of The Week Next Week.

...Model Preferences...

The Deterministic Models Continue To Show Better Than Average
Agreement All The Way Through Sat/D7 While The Ensembles Show Less Than Average Spread... Leading To Above Average Confidence In The Synoptic Forecast.

The Differences Between The Gefs And Ecmwf Ensemble Members Have Changed Little Over The Past 2-3 Days... As The Ecmwf Members Are Generally Just A Bit Slower And More Amplified While The Gefs Members Are A Bit Quicker And Flatter.

The Overlap Between The Combined 70-Member Ensemble Has Proved To Be A Good Starting Point For The Forecast... And This Is
Best Represented By A Blend Of The 00z Ecmwf With Varying Weights
Of The 00z-06z Gfs. The 00z Canadian And Ukmet Fall Slightly
Outside The Better Gfs-Ecmwf Agreement But Are Still Offer Positive Support.

...Sensible Weather Impacts...

In The East... The Guidance Favor A Storm Track That Arcs From The
Dakotas And Upper Mississippi Valley Through The Midwest And Into
The Mid Atlantic States... Before Exiting Into The Western Atlantic Ocean. These Clippers Will Be Generating Periods Of Light Snowfall Across Their Northern Flanks While The Canadian Airmass In Place Moderates Over Time.

By Thu/D5 Into Sat/D7... Heights Are Forecast To Rise Giving A Boost To Temperatures Over The Mid-Atlantic/Northeast Of About 10-15 Degrees. Northern Stream Dominance Will Limit Precipitation To About A Quarter Inch /Melted/ In Favored Areas With Lesser Amounts Elsewhere.

In The West... One System Will Push Into The Pac Nw Tue/D3 And
Continue Eastward Through The High Plains Wed-Thu/D4-5 With Light To Perhaps Moderate Qpf.

The More Robust Troughing Is Forecast To Move Into Wa Thu/D5 And Dig Through Ca/Nv As Ridging In Its Wake Pushes Into British Columbia. Forecast Standard Deviations Of 500mb Height By The Ensembles Are In The -2 Range And This Broad-Scale Lift Will Usher In A Much Colder And Unstable Airmass Into The Great Basin And Four Corners Region.

Anticipate A Gradual Slowdown Of The Upper Trough... With A
Deepening Lee Side Trough And Broad-Scale Upslope Flow Component To Take Shape Over Wyoming And Colorado In Advance Of The Upper Trough.

Moderate To Heavy Precipitation Is Possible North Of The Sfc Low Ejecting Out Of The Four Corners Region As Well As Downstream Ahead Of The Cold Front Through Texas Into Ms And Al By The Weekend. This Is Dependent On How Much Energy Closes Off Over
The Southern Rockies... Which Adds Some Uncertainty To The Details.


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