US Final Extended Weather thru Feb 5

General Flow Pattern...

Nearly The Entire Northern Hemisphere Is Forecast To Flip Its Upper Pattern Between Now And Next Week... With The Current Ridge/ Trough/ Ridge Over The Conus Transitioning To Trough/Ridge/Trough From Just West Of The Pacific Coastline To The Rockies To The Appalachians... Respectively.

With Broad Troughing Over The East The Northwest Flow Should Minimize Heavy Precipitation Threats While The Retreat Of The Canadian Vortex Back North Of Hudson Bay Should Lessen The Cold Air Across The Conus By Early Next Week.

Model Preferences....

All Of The Global Models Are In Good Synoptic Agreement And Show
Only Expected Amplitude/Timing Differences.

The 06z Gefs And 00z Ecmwf Ensembles Are Well Correlated So Saw No Reason To Deviate Much From Their Solutions. A Blend Of The 00z Ecmwf And Its Ensemble Mean For Fri-Sat/D3-4 Was Sufficient.

By Sun-Tue/D5-7... Differences Off The West Coast Become More Apparent And The Models Start To Diverge More Noticeably.

The Models Continue To Forecast Energy Cutting Off Near Or West Of 130w And Forming An Upper Low Deep Into The Southern Latitudes /South Of 20n/. Taken Verbatim From The Ecmwf Or Gfs This Would Be At Least Four Standard Deviations Below Normal For 500mb Heights.

The Question Focuses On How Much Energy In The Northern Half Of The Trough Will Move Through California And The Sw Conus And Then Eastward.

The Ecmwf Has Been Insistent On Limiting This Energy While The Gfs Has Backed Off From Its Robust Solution In Recent Runs. Ensembles Suggest Something In Between... Which Seems Reasonable. The Effect Downstream Will Be How Quickly A System In The Northern Stream Moves Toward The East Coast With The 00z Ecmwf Quickest And Gfs Generally Slower But Less Consistent. This Is Dependent On How The Upstream Closed Low Develops... As The More Westward Cutoff Solution By The 00z Ecmwf Is Possibly Too Amplified... As Was The Case Just A Week Ago In Its Forecast Along The West Coast.

Allowing A Bit More Energy From The Trough To Move Through The
West/Sw Should Yield A Slightly Slower Solution In The East By
Next Week. Ensemble Probabilities Focus Low Pressure Near The
Great Lakes And St. Lawrence Valley Rather Than Near The
Mid-Atlantic /Like The 06z Gfs/ By Tue/D7. The 00z Canadian
Offered Good Support Of The Means As Well.

Sensible Weather Impacts...

The First Half Of The Forecast Appears To Be Quite Dry Conus-Wide
And Cold East Of The Plains.

As The Eastern Trough Weakens... Temperatures Should Moderate And The West Coast Ridging Will Move Eastward Allowing More Precipitation Into Wa/Or And Northern California With The Possibility Of Light Precipitation Into The Sw States.

As The System Moves Through The Central Conus Moisture Should Increase Along/Ahead Of The Boundary East Of The Mississippi But With Much More Liquid Precip Vs Frozen As Temperatures Should Rise Above Freezing As Far North As Interior New England.


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