US Final Extended Weather thru Feb 3

The Majority Of Medium Range Guidance Is Stable And Agreeable With The Fcst Pattern Over The Conus And Vicinity Thru Next Weekend.

A Mean Trof Will Make Gradual Progress Across The Ern Half Of The
Lower 48 With Its Axis Nearing The East Coast By Next Sun.

Meanwhile An Ern Pac Ridge Will Drift Ewd Toward The Extreme Wrn
States. This Ridge Is Fcst To Weaken Gradually While A Split Flow
Configuration Takes Shape Just Off The West Coast By The Latter
Half Of The Period.

Over The Conus As A Whole The Best Consensus Among Latest Model/Ensemble Mean Solns Is Reflected By The 06z Gfs/00z Ecmwf And 06z Gefs Mean/00z Ecmwf Mean Thru Day 5 Fri... And 06z Gefs Mean/00z Ecmwf/00z Ecmwf Mean Days 6-7 Sat-Sun.

Over The West... Operational Ecmwf Runs Remain On The Amplified
Side Of The Spread... Incl Their Corresponding Ensemble Means...
With A Shrtwv Reaching The Pac Nw Day 4 Thu. The Preferred
Consensus Tones Down The Ecmwf Soln With This Feature.

By The Latter Half Of The Period The 00z Gfs Compares Quite Poorly To Other Guidance In Being Fast/Stg With Nern Pac Shrtwv Energy
Reaching Wrn Noam. The 06z Gfs Is A Considerable Improvement Upon The 00z Run But May Still Be Too Aggressive To Bring Hgt Falls
Into Ca. Modest Trend Of The 06z Gefs Mean To Raise Hgts Over The
Nwrn States Compared To The 00z Gefs Mean Recommends Its Inclusion In The Blend Rather Than The 00z Version... While Somewhat Greater Strength Of The Ridge In The Ecmwf/Ecmwf Mean Ultimately Favor Majority Weighting Of Their Solns.

Some Lgt Pcpn Is Psbl Over Favored Terrain From The Pac Nw Into Nrn-Cntrl Rockies But Otherwise Expect Dry Weather Thru The Period. Daytime Temps Should Be Near To Above Normal Aside From Portions Of The Grtbasin Where Colder Readings May Linger For A While.

Over The Cntrl/Ern States... Discounting The 00z Gfs Later In The
Period Due To Upstream Issues Leaves Remarkably Good Clustering Among Latest Models/Ensemble Means Thru The Period.

Stg Ern Canada Low Pressure Will Sweep A Cold Front And Leading Warm Temps/Locally Mdt-Hvy Rnfl Thru The East On Day 3 Wed.

A Reinforcing Surge Of Cold Air Will Push The Next Front Into
Srn/Ern Areas By Day 5 Fri.

The Anchoring Wave Should Intensify Off The East Coast Late Fri Into Sat But With A Sufficiently Ewd Trajectory To Have Minimal Impact On The Northeast.

However Before That Point It May Still Generate A Band Of Snow Approx From The Cntrl Plains To Mid Atlc Thu-Fri.

Then Expect A Sfc Low To Track Across The Upr Grtlks/New England Next Weekend Accompanied By A Modest Mstr Shield From The Nrn Tier Into The Aplchns And Trailing Cold Front Crossing The East.

Between Systems Cold Cyclonic Flow Will Support Periods Of Snow Downwind From The Grtlks. Coldest Temps Relative To Normal Should Be Over The Nrn Plains/Upr Ms Vly Around Wed-Thu Extending In Slightly Less Extreme Fashion To The Grtlks/Oh-Tn Vlys By Day 5 Fri.

Gradual Ewd Progression Of The Mean Trof Aloft Will Support A Warming Trend Over Most Of The Plains By Next Weekend.

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