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US Final Extended Weather thru Feb 23

...Significant System Possible In The Central Plains Thursday...

...Overview...

Three Areas Of Upper Ridging Surrounding The Conus /Over The
Northeast Pacific... Hudson Bay... And Near Cuba/ Should Help
Block/Guide Several Systems Next Week.

Split Flow Off The Pacific Should Dig Systems Through The West Before Ejecting Out Onto The Plains And Then Northeastward.

Cold Canadian Sfc High Pressure Is Forecast To Remain Just North Of The High Plains/Upper Midwest.

...Model Preferences...

The Guidance Shows Good Synoptic Agreement Through Sat/D7.

The Main Differences Seen Between The Gfs/Gefs And Ecmwf/Ecmwf
Ensembles Remain The Same... With The Former Just A Bit Quicker
Than The Latter Overall.

Though A Weighted Compromise Usually Proves Best... The Trend In The Past 24 Hrs Has Been Toward A Slower Exodus Of The Potentially Significant Sfc Systems In The Central/Southern Plains Thu/D5. Thus... Opted To Lean Toward The Slower Ecmwf/Ecmwf Ensemble Mean Solutions Over The Gefs Solution. The Ukmet/ Canadian Largely Side With The Ecmwf Cluster As Well.

The Largest Spread Among The Ensembles Appears By Sat/D7 Over The Pac Nw... Where The Gfs/Gefs Members Forecast Anything From A Closed Low To Weak Troughing To Ridging. The Ecmwf Members Suggest Troughing With Decreased Spread Since 24 Hrs Ago... But Given Its Origin Upstream Over The North Pacific /With A 160kt+ Jet/... This May Very Well Change At Least In Timing If Not Amplitude.

...Sensible Weather Highlights...

First System Over The Great Lakes Tue/D3 Should Exit Stage Right
Over Maine On Wed/D4... With Lingering Lake Effect Snows In Its
Wake That Should End By Thu/D5.

In The West... Digging Upper Low Is Still Forecast To Round The Base Of The Trough Through Southern Nv/Northern Az Before Reforming Over Se Co Thu/D5.

With Cold Air In Place To The Northeast... Easterly Flow Should Set Up A Decent Upslope Event In Eastern Colorado With Heavy Snow Extending Eastward Into Nebraska.

With Pressure Difference Between The Low And High To The Northeast Over 40mb... Blizzard Conditions Seem Quite Possible.

As The Sfc Low Tracks Through Kansas... 12z/15 Ecmwf Was A Bit Slower Than Its Mean /And The Gfs/ Though Given The Slower Trend In The Gefs And Ecmwf Ensemble Members A Compromise Between The Two Seemed Reasonable.

The Gulf Should Be Open For Business By Thu/D5 With Gefs
Probability Of Pw Of At Least One Inch Over 50 Percent Up To Ky/Tn
Border.

Ensemble Means Already Putting Out About 1.50in Of Qpf In The Fri-Sat/D6-7 Time Frame With Some Wetter Members Over 3 Inches
/Gefs/ Or Even 5 Inches /Ecmwf Ensembles/.

Severe Weather Also A Possibility In The Warm Sector /See Spc For Latest Day 4-8 Outlook/.

System Should Weaken As It Moves Northeast And Then Possibly Develops Another Main Sfc Low Offshore.

Western States Will See Another Trough Dig Through The Sw Fri/D6... But Likely Not As Strong As The One Prior.

Temperatures Should Be Cold Across The Northern Plains But More
Variable In The East... Oscillating Between Relatively Warmer And
Colder Ahead Of And Behind Each System... Respectively. The West
Should Generally Stay Below Normal With The Reloading Trough.

The Gulf Coast And Florida Will Be Closer To The Subtropical Ridge
Over Cuba And Are Forecast To Be Near To Above Normal.


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