Confidence In The Larger Scale Aspects Of The Fcst Has Improved
Somewhat Versus Recent Days As Guidance Is Pointing Toward A
Fairly Progressive Soln For The Trof That Should Be Aligned From
The Nrn High Plains Thru Nwrn Mexico As Of Early Day 3 Tue.
The Combination Of This Trof And Amplifying Upstream Flow Will Lead To A Broad Mean Trof Covering The Ern Half Of The Conus By Days 5-7 Thu-Sat.
Meanwhile Consensus Indicates A Gradual Weakening And Slight Ewd Movement Of The Initially Stg Ern Pac Ridge.
The Primary Fcst Issues Over The East Involve Details Of Sfc Low Pressure Fcst To Consolidate Over The Grtlks/Ern Canada During The First Half Of The Period And Timing Of The Trailing Cold Front...
While Upstream There Are Some Question Marks Regarding Shrtwvs
Rounding The Ern Pac Ridge And To What Extent The Ridge Weakens By Late In The Period.
Evaluation Of The Latest Array Of Solns And Continuity Leads To Favoring An Even Blend Of The 00z Gefs/Ecmwf Ensemble Means As The Best Option For The Tue-Sat Fcst.
Latest Models/Ensemble Means Are Sufficiently Agreeable With The
Departing Wrn Trof To Be Considered The Highest Probability Soln
For Deterministic Purposes... But Enough Of A Minority In 00z
Ensemble Members Holding Srn Energy Farther Wwd Still Exists To
Keep Confidence In The Fcst From Being Above Average.
Detail Diffs Persist With Plains To Ern Canada Sfc Evolution Days 3-4
Tue-Wed With The 06z Gfs And 00z Ukmet/Cmc Psbly Overdone With Sfc Low Depth While The System Is Crossing The Grtlks. The 00z
Gefs/Ecmwf Means Offer A More Moderate And Consistent Soln For
This System. These Means Are A Little Slower Than Prior Issuance
With The Trailing Cold Front Crossing The Ern Half Of The Conus
But Are Not As Slow As The 00z Ecmwf. With Respect To Upstream
Flow Feeding Into The Broadening Ern Trof... The 00z Ecmwf Is On
The Stg/Sharp Side Of The Spread With Its Shrtwv That Reaches The
East Coast Around Late Fri.
The Ensemble Means Provide A Good Intermediate Soln For The Track Of A Clipper System Expected To Reach The Grtlks By Late Day 7 Sat.
Around The Nrn Periphery Of The Ern Pac Ridge... The 06z Gfs Does
Not Compare Well To Other Solns With Its Shrtwv Reaching The Pac
Nw By Early Wed While The 00z Ecmwf Appears Similarly Unfavorable
With A Day 5 Thu Shrtwv. The 06z Gfs Appears Too Quick To Break
Down The Ridge By Fri-Sat. By The End Of The Period The 00z
Cmc/Ecmwf Mean Become Most Amplified With Ern Pac Troffing Near
This Feature Has Appeared To Some Degree In Past Ensmeans And Helps To Maintain A Stronger Ridge Reaching The West Coast So At Least Half Weighting Of This Scenario Seems Reasonable.
A Majority Of The Ern Half Of The Lower 48 Should See Much Above
Normal Temps Ahead Of The Cold Front Progressing From The Plains To East Coast Around Midweek.
Daytime Readings May Reach Calendar Day Records At Some Locations Tue And Psbly Wed.
Expect This Front To Be Accompanied By A Band Of Locally Mdt-Hvy Rnfl From The Ern Plains/Ms Vly Ewd.
The Core Of Coldest Air Behind The Front Should Be Over The Nrn Plains/Upr Ms Vly Wed-Thu With Some Daytime Temps More Than 20 F Below Normal. Expect Somewhat Less Extreme Cold Anomalies Farther Ewd/Sewd.
After The Frontal Passage Most Of The Cntrl-Ern States Should Be Fairly Dry Aside From Lake Effect Snow And An Area Of Lgt Snow Vicinity Of The Day 7 Clipper Nearing The Grtlks.
Wrn States Will See A Drying Trend With Any Mstr That Remains Being Confined To Nrn Areas.
Temps Should Be Within A Few Degs Of Normal For The Period As A Whole... Leaning A Little Cooler Early In The Period And A Little Warmer Later In The Week.
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