US Final Extended Weather thru Feb 17

...An Active Winter Weather Pattern Continues...

...Overall Guidance Preferences...

Hpc Medium Range Surface Fronts/Pressures And 500 Mb Progs Have Been Primarily Derived From The 00 Utc Gfs Ensemble Mean And To A Lesser Extent The 00 Utc Ecmwf Ensemble Mean That Seem To Best Best Reflect Forecaster Reasoning As Described Below While Also Maintaining Max Hpc Continuity.

...System Reasoning And Overall Pattern Highlights...

Guidance Offers Above Normal Forecast Spread And Uncertainty With
Lead System Track And Intensity Out Through The Sern/Ern Us
Wed/Thu Right At The Start Of The Medium Range Forecast Period.

Coordination With Hpc Short Range Desks Suggests The Ecmwf May Be Too Flat With The Supporting Impulse Aloft Given Initial Strength... But A Recent Camp Of Gfs Solutions On The Other End Of The Forecast Spectrum May Be Somewhat Overdone Given The System Is
Shearing Eastward In Relatively Flat Flow. This May Limit Subsequent Nwd Lift/Strong Deepening As A Wrn Atlantic Coastal Low Thu. A Compromise Leaning Slightly Heavier On Development Seems In Order Pending 12 Utc Model Guidance.

This Solution Favors Heavier Se Us Centered Rains And Some Winter Swath On The North Side Of The Precipitation Shield.

Deep Pacific Low Development And Track Up Toward Alaska Commonly Depicted In Recent Guidance And Well Supported By Latest Water Vapor Imagery Leads To Minimal Forecast Spread And Uncertainty With Respect To The Building Of An Amplified Wrn Noam Mid-Upper Level Ridge Thu/Fri. This Should Support Ample Downstream East-Central Us Mid-Upper Level Trough Amplification.

This Sets The Stage For Cold Air To Dig Swd From Canada And Highlights A Threat Of Great Lake Effect Snows And Possible Ern Us Low/System Development Within A Main Baroclinic Zone As Aided By Mid-Upper Level Trough Dynamics. Embedded Impulse Specifics/Stream Phasing Will Be Critical For Any Organized Low And Boundary Layer Response/Sensible Weather Focus. That Scale Of Weather However Has Limited Predictability At These Longer Medium Range Time Scales But A Winter Threat Remains... Especially For The Nrn Mid-Atlantic And Nern Us Next Weekend...With Trailing Frontal Convection Meanwhile On Tap For Fl.

Upstream...A More Conservative Mid-Upper Level Trough Strength And Precipitation Potential Than Shown By The 00 Utc Ecmwf/ Canadian Heading Inland Into The Nwrn Us Next Weekend Seems More Likely Considering The System...While Energetic Over The Pacific...Will Have To Work Inland Into A Quite Amplified Mid-Upper Level Ridge.

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