US Final Extended Weather thru Feb 16

...The Active/Stormy Weather Pattern Continues...

The Medium Range Period Valid Days 4-7 Wed-Sat Should Prove To Be Quite Active Within A Large Scale Conus Mean Mid-Upper Level
Trough Downstream From An Amplified Ern Pac Ridge.

Ridge Amplitude Seems Well Supported By Upstream Deep Storm Development Toward Alaska Common In Most Guidance.

This Pattern Will Favor Coldest Temps Relative To Normal Over The Interior West...Spreading Out Across The Central Us By Late Week.

Two Primary Systems Of Interest Include A Wave Tracking Newd From The Gulf Of Mexico And Into The Wrn Atlantic As A Coastal Low And Later As Nrn Pac Energy Digs/Amplifies Down Through The Central Us Leading To A Possible Significant Ern Us Storm By Next Weekend.

Hpc Medium Range Surface Fronts/Pressures And 500 Mb Progs Have Been Primarily Derived From An Even Compromise Blend Of The 00 Utc Gfs/Ecmwf/Gfs Ensemble Mean Tue/Wed Before Transitioning To The 06 Utc Gfs Ensemble Mean By Next Fri/Sat.

With The Gulf To Atlc Sfc Low During The Wed-Thu Time Frame... Recent Ensembles Generally Suggest A Low Track Between Recent Gfs And More Offshore Ecmwf Runs With The Leading East Coast Low Through Midweek.

Gfs Runs Have Generally Remained On The Nwrn Side Of The Full Guidance Spread Though Not To The Point Of Being Outliers Relative To Individual Ensemble Members.

The Relatively Progressive Nature Of Flow Containing The Supporting
Energy Ejecting From The Srn Rockies/High Plains... And Positive
Tilt Of The Established Large Scale Mean Pattern...Seem To Favor
An Intermediate Solution.

Upstream Nrn Pac Energy Should Begin Amplifying Over The Conus
Around Wed-Thu...This May End Up Being A Rather Complex System.

To Simplify Amid Uncertainty Yet Still Maintain System Development
Threat...The 06 Utc Gfs Ensemble Mean Offers A Compromise
Mid-Upper Level Trough Position Over The East-Central Us Between
00 Utc Gfs Ensembles And Ecmwf Ensembles. The Less Negative Tilt Of The 06 Utc Gfs Ensemble Mean Trough Seems Consistent With Energy Digging Down From The Amplified Upstream Ridge Position.

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