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US Final Extended Weather thru Feb 10

...Winter Returning To The Intermountain West And Central Plains
Friday To Sunday...

...Synopsis...

We Continue In An Oscillating Pattern Of Dry And Seasonably Cold
Weather Anchored By Low Heights In The East...Followed By Periods
Of Progressive Flow And A Northward Surge Of Wet And Very Warm
Weather That Better Resembles Early Spring.

The Current Day 3-7 Forecast Features The Latter...With The Dominant Feature Being A Progressive Deep Trough That Reaches The Intermountain West And Central U.S. By Next Weekend.

A Noteworthy System May Also Occur Along The East Coast During The Transition Period Late In The Work Week.

The 00z Ecmwf Indicates The Possibility Of A Significant Storm...But Current Thinking Is That A Lesser Storm Moving Quickly Out To Sea Is The More Likely Scenario.

...Model Choice...

The Models Are Similar In Wave Spacing And Timing During The
Developing Progressive Flow Which Runs From The Central Pacific
Across North America.

This Makes It Relatively Easy To Identify The Strong Or Weak Outliers ...And Make A Forecast Near The Middle Of The Spread.

In Doing This...The Surface Forecasts Were Particularly Useful...And We Chose Models That Met Our Expectations For The Respective Intensities Of A Low Over New England On Friday And Another Over The Central Plains On Saturday/Sunday.

The Most Notable Outlier Was The 00z Ecmwf...Which Forms More Of A Classic Nor'easter On Friday.

This Results From A Low That Originates Over The Northern Gulf Of
Mexico And Takes A Classic Track Around The Southern End Of The
Appalachians And Up The East Coast.

The Low May Form In The Northern Gulf As A Result Of Energy Currently Digging Toward Mexico.

The Ecmwf...However...Was Substantially Deeper Than All Other Models With An Upstream Trough That Picks Up This Feature And Allows The East Coast Cyclogenesis To Occur.

Although A Handful Of Ecmwf Ensemble Members Do The Same Thing...The Ecmwf Ensemble Mean Is Lesser Amplified.

The Pattern This Winter Has Tended To Promote Progressive Systems That Are Farther Out To Sea Before They Intensify.

The Gfs Runs...Along With The Ukmet...Continue To Support This Notion...With Emphasis On A Northern Stream Shortwave And Associated Surface Low Which Gains Strength As It Exits New England From West To East.

While The Ecmwf Solution Is Not Impossible...There Is Not Enough Of An Established Trend To Give It Much Weight In The Forecast.

Back To The West...We Did Give The Ecmwf And Ec Ensemble Mean More Weight As The Gfs Runs At 00z And 06z Were Slower And Somewhat Deeper Than Consensus.

...Impacts...

Locally Heavy Rain Is Possible Along The Immediate Gulf Coast Days
3/4.

Heavy Rain Will Become More Likely On Day 7 With Cyclogenesis And A Pacific Front Tapping Into Gulf Moisture Over The Central/ Southern Plains And Adjacent Missouri/Mississippi Valleys.

On The Back Side Of The System...Winter Weather Including Heavy
Snow Is Possible From The Intermountain West Into The Central
Plains.

As We Transition To Another Brief Period Of Southwest Upper Flow And Southerly Low Level Flow Across The Southeastern Half Of The Country...Temperatures Again Warm To Well Above Average For Both Max And Min Temperatures.


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