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US Final Extended Weather thru Dec 2

Prolific Precipitation Pattern This Period For The Pacific Northwest, Northern California, And The Northern Intermountain Region...

Preliminary Update...

Used The 00z/25 Ecens Mean As A Base To Update The Preliminary
Fronts And Pressures For Days 3 Through 7, Adding Value Near The
Major Low Pressure Systems To Depict More Realistic Gradients.

The Ecens Mean Has Been The Steadiest Piece Of Guidance Of The Lot For Many Days Now, So Took The Broadest Synoptic Cues From It. The 00z/25 Ecens And Gefs Means Both Indicated That The Wave Off The Northeast Coast Day 3 Might Be Closer To The Maine Coast Than The Deterministic Models Suggest, So Extended The 1016 Mb Isobar Westward.

Over The West, The Constant Southwesterly Flow And The Proximity Of The Mean Longwave Trough Just Offshore Ensures A Steady Production Of Lower Elevation Rains And Mountain Snows From The Northern Half Of California To Washington And Eastward To The Continental Divide. Many Inches Of Rainfall Are Likely Over Far
Northern California, With Snowfall In The Feet For The Central And
Northern Sierra Nevada, The Cascades, The Bitterroots, And The
Wyoming Portion Of The Absaroka Range.

Over The Central States, The Deterministic Is Bullish With An Outbreak Of Showers During The Period, With The European Centre Guidance Much Less So. The Ecens Mean Indicates At Least Light Rainfall There, So Will Reflect That In The Qpf And Pops.

Final...

Squashed The Northwestern Side Of The Low Passing Eastward Along 40n Off The Mid Atlantic Coast Day 3, With All Of The 12z/25
Deterministic Models Indicating No Phasing With Any Energy In The
Main Polar Stream.

Elsewhere, Made Only Cosmetic Changes To The Update Package For The Final Issuance, Tightening Up The Wave Well West Of Oregon Day 3.


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