May 20, 2013
Preliminary Update...
Used The 00z/08 Ecmwf To Update The Preliminary Fronts And
Pressures For Days 3 Through 7.
The Latest Global Numerical Models Are In Good Agreement, With The Ecmwf Showing More Run-To-Run Continuity Than The Gfs, Gem Global, And Ukmet.
The Pattern Will Change This Period, With A Trough Digging Down The Pacific Coast, And A Southeast Ridge Popping Up. The Split In The Flow Over The West Will Send A Branch Of Flow Across The Great Plains And Into The Great Lakes And Saint Lawrence Valley, With Wintry Precipitation Indicated North Of The Polar Front.
Final...
The 12z/08 Gfs Was Not Integrated Into The Final Progs, With
Several Key Shortwaves Out Of Sync With The Bulk Of The Recent
Guidance.
The 12z/08 Gefs Mean Was Compatible, With The Gem Global Close To The Synoptic Detail In Many Cases Right Through Day 7.
The Only Changes On The Final Issuance Were Cosmetic In Nature.
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