Waning Negative Nao Signal Becomes Very Evident Across The Western 2/3rds Of The Nation Midway Through This Forecast Cycle With A Very Active Spring-Like Cyclone Track Taking Aim On The Pacific Northwest...Northern Central Rockies...Great Basin.
Downstream Across The Central And Southern Plains...Exiting Energy From The Rockies (And More Of A Pacific Influence) Signals The Return Of Complex Convective Weather.
By Day 7...An Amplifying Upper-Level Trough Is Likely To Be Influencing The Weather Across A Broad Portion Of The West.
In The East...A Slow And Gradual Northeastward Shift In The Vortex Across Eastern Canadian Is Expected Beyond Day 6.
The 31/00z Cycle Guidance...Including The Deterministic Gfs/Ecmwf/ Canadian Guidance Looked Very Good With Many Of The Smaller-Scale Details Through Day 5. In Enough Agreement...To
Blend Them With The 31/00z Ec Ensemble Means For The Surface And H5 Graphics And Not Lose Much In The Way Of Continuity.
All Three Carry An Active Surface Wave And Associated Trough Along The West Coast Day 4...And For Day 5...An Exiting And Active Surface Wave Along The Eastern Seaboard Friday With A Deepening Lee Side Low And Rather Vigorous Pacific Front In The Great Basin And Central Rockies. Wpc Leaned More To The Deterministic 31/00z Ecmwf/Ec Ensemble Means For Day6-7 Along The West Coast Given A Faster/Weaker Deterministic Gfs And Gefs Mean.
...Sensible Weather Highlights...
Along The West Coast...
A Series Of Surface Waves And Warm Advection Will Break Across The Northwest...And Each A Little Stronger Than The Previous. This Culminates With The H5 Trough Axis Passing Ashore Across Much Of California Around Day 7.
Rockies And Central Us...
The Deepening Lee Side Low And Ejecting Mid-Level Cyclone Tracking Through The Central Plains And Into The Midwest...Will Be The Primary Sensible Weather Maker For A Large Portion Of The Central Conus For Days 6-7.
Along The East Coast And Southeast...
The Day 4 Surface Wave Emerging Along The Northwest Gomex Will Slowly Work Its Way Through The Southeast And Piedmont. By Day 6...The 31/00z Cycle Guidance Suggests It Will Remain A 'Separated' Southern Stream Cyclone...And Something Closer To The Canadian/ Ecmwf Solution Seemed Reasonable.
This Allows A Return Southerly Onshore Flow And Over Running Moisture To Move Into The Northern Gulf Coast States...And Will Allow For At Least One Coastal Wave And Its Wrap Around Precipitation Shield To Glide Northeastward Through The Cntral Appalachians And Northern Mid Atlantic States.
A Glancing Brush Of The Southern Half Of New England...Is Where There Was One Break From The Previous Set Of Graphics. Am Anticipating A Little More Precipitation Next Friday And Saturday For Coastal New England Than The Previous Progs.
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