US Final Extended Weather thru Apr 21

...Overview...

Medium Range Forecast Continues To Feature A Slowly Progressive
Trough Exiting The Rockies And Lifting Toward The Northeast By
Next Weekend.

Its Sfc Reflection Will Be A Strong Cold Front With Mild Air Ahead Of It But Much Colder Temperatures In Its Wake.

By Late In The Week... Energy From Nw Canada And The Ne Pacific Should Slide Across The Pac Nw And Northern Tier But There Remains Considerable Model Disagreement As To Its Strength/ Timing/Location.

...Model Preferences...

The Ecmwf/Ecens Mean Continue To Have A Better Handle On The
Robust System In The Central/Eastern Conus During The Second Half Of The Work Week... With Much Better Continuity Over The Past
Several Days Than The Gfs/Gefs Mean.

In Addition... The Ukmet Now Clusters Well With The Ecmwf While The Canadian Sides With The Gfs To The West Of The Ecmwf As The Sfc Low Moves Out Of The Southern Plains And Into The Great Lakes. Used A Blend Of The 00z Ecmwf/Ukmet And Ecens Mean Days 3-5 Which Kept Good Continuity With The Frontal Progression Through The Ms Valley As Well As The Wavy Boundary Over The Northeast. Wpc Prefers To Keep That Boundary North Of The Mason-Dixon Line Through Central/Northern Pa.

The Pac Nw Remains An Area Of Disagreement Among The Guidance. Ridging To The South Just West Of California And An Upper Low Over Southern Alaska Favors Zonal Flow Through British Columbia But The Ecmwf Ensembles Have Consistently Suggested Energy Could Slip South Closer To Washington.

Farther East... Wpc Prefers A Weaker Version Of How The Ecmwf Handles Energy Initially Over Alaska That Slides Southeastward Through Nw Canada Then Eastward Just North Of The Us/Canadian Border. The Gfs Remains Much Weaker As It Takes The Brunt Of This Energy Westward Toward The Bering Sea Rather Than Eastward Into Canada. However... Given The Continued Support From The Ecmwf Ensembles... Prefer To Side With Their Solution. Tempered The Deterministic Ecmwf By Next Weekend D6-7 With A Majority Weighting Of The Ecens Mean As The 00z Ecmwf May Be Too
Aggressive/Quick With Its Sfc Front.

...Sensible Weather Highlights...

As Can Be The Case In Many Spring Systems... A Wintry Environment
To The Nw Of The System And A Summery One To The Se Should Support An Active Cold Front Through The Central/Eastern States.

Widespread Moderate To Heavy Rain With Embedded Convection Should Progress Out Of The Southern Plains Into The Ms Valley
Wed-Fri/D3-5 With Spc Still Highlighting Ne Tx... Se Ok... Into Ar
On Wed/D3 For Possible Severe Weather.

Ensemble Means Continue To Increase Their 48-Hr Qpf Days 4-5 /Over 2 Inches From Ar Toward Il/ With The Deterministic Runs Still Forecasting Maximum Values Near 4-5 Inches.

As The Front Nears The East Coast... Weakening Upper Support Should Lessen The Heavy Rainfall Threat But A Widespread Modest Rainfall Event Is Still Likely.

Temperatures Should Crash Behind The Front 25-35f With Max Temps 20-30f Below Normal Over A Good Chunk Of The Central Conus. The East Should Warm Up 10-15f Above Normal Ahead Of The Front Before A More Modest Cool Down Next Weekend.

In The West... Precipitation Should Generally Be Light With The System Skirting The Northern Tier Next Weekend... With The Heaviest Precip Likely In The Higher Terrain Of Washington And Northern Idaho. Temperatures Should Cool Again Behind This Boundary Across The Northern Plains But Southwest Of The Divide Temperatures Should Moderate Nicely Thanks To Ridging Over California.


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