US Final Extended Weather thru Apr 20

...Significant Upslope Snow Event Possible In Colorado Tue-Wed...

...Heavy Rain Possible In The Mid-Ms Valley Wed-Thu...


An Active April Weather Pattern Is Forecast For The Entire Conus
Next Week As A Strong Upper Trough Traverses The Country From West To East.

Ridging Along The East Coast Will Slowly Retreat Eastward Into The Atlantic In Response To The Approaching Trough. In The West... Ridging Over The Ne Pacific Should Push Into California By Later In The Week But A More Zonal Flow Into British Columbia May Allow Moisture To Creep Southward Into Washington And Points East Of The Divide.

...Model Preferences...

The Ensembles Continue To Converge Toward A Common Solution As The Western Trough Exits Onto The Plains. The Gefs Members Still Lie Just Ahead Of The Ecmwf Members... But The Gefs/Ecmwf Members Have Slowed/Quickened... Respectively... Compared To 48 Hrs Ago. However... The Gefs Have Slowed Much More Than The Ecmwf Members Have Sped Up... So Wpc Continues To Give More Weight To The Ecmwf-Led Guidance With A Minority Weighting To The Gefs Early In The Forecast.

As The System Progresses Eastward... The Gfs/Gefs Become Slower To Push The Sfc Low Through The Great Lakes And Into
Canada. The Ecmwf Ensemble Mean Has Shown Much Better Continuity While The Deterministic Ecmwf Has Wavered On Its Speed/Depth...But Its 13/00z Solution Lies Much Closer To The Ecens Mean Than Did Its 12/12z Run.

All Models Take The Front Off The East Coast By Sat/D7 With Low Pressure Likely North Of Maine Per The Ecens Mean.

In The West... Gfs/Gefs Continue To Take Energy Moving Through The
Alaska Panhandle And Through British Columbia Wed-Thu/D4-5 More
Quickly Eastward Than The Weaker Ecmwf/Ecens Mean. Given The
Preference Downstream Of The Ecmwf... And The Tendency Of The
Gfs/Gefs To Be Too Quick... Will Prefer The Slower Ecmwf/Ecens
Mean By Late In The Week As This System Slides Eastward Just North Of The Canadian Border.

...Sensible Weather Highlights...

A Robust Pacific Front And Tight Pressure Gradient Surges
Southward Through The West And Southwest Tue-Wed/D3-4... With A
Deepening Surface Wave Emerging Out Of The Four Corners Area
Beneath A Rather Progressive Mid-Level Impulse Embedded Within The Migratory Upper-Level Trough Pressing Through The Rockies. With Building High Pressure Over The Northern Plains Funneling Cold Air Southward And Westward... Significant Upslope Snow Is Possible Over Northeastern Colorado And The East Facing Mountains. Ecmwf Continues To Advertise Well Over A Foot Of Snow In The Terrain West Of Denver But Still A Healthy Amount Of Snow Through The Foothills Toward The Cheyenne Ridge.

To The South... A Series Of Dryline Episodes In The Southern High
Plains Is Possible Prior To Thu/D5 Before The Depth Of The
Canadian Airmass Overtakes The Entire Region.

Spc Continues To Highlight Oklahoma/Northeast Texas Into Arkansas Tue-Wed/D3-4 For Possible Severe Weather Ahead Of The Front. Thereafter... Ample Gulf Moisture Combined With Several Weak Surface Waves Developing Along The Front Should Support Moderate To Heavy Rain Into The Mid Ms Valley. Both The Ecmwf And Gefs Ensembles Show At Least A 40 Percent Chance Of More Than Two Inches Of Rain For The 48 Hr Period Ending Thursday Evening Over Ar Into Mo. Deterministic Models Are Closer To 5 Inches In 48 Hrs While The Wettest Ensemble Members Eclipse 6 Inches.

As The Front Pushes Toward The East Coast... Heaviest Qpf Should Advance Northeastward Toward The Eastern Lakes Into The Northeast Though The Gfs And Ecmwf Maintain Pw Values Over 1.50 Inches Through The Southeast And Briefly Into The Mid-Atlantic.

Mild Temperatures East Of The Front /10-15 Degrees Above Normal/ Will Be Replaced From West To East By A Much Colder Airmass /15-25 Degrees Below Normal/ But That Should Moderate Somewhat East Of 85w.

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