US Final Extended Weather thru Apr 16

...Overview And Model Preferences....

A Strong Positive Height Anomaly Over The Bering Sea Should Remain In Place Over The Medium Range Time Period. Teleconnections To This Feature Only Show A Weak Signal Downstream With Troughing Favored In The Western Conus And Weak Ridging In The East.

The Models/Ensembles Generally Agree On The Pattern With Typical
Speed/Amplitude Differences... Especially By Early Next Week. A
Blend Between The 06z Gfs And 00z Ecmwf Resulted In A Solution
Near A 00z Gefs/Ecens Mean Blend Fri-Sat/D3-4 With The Exiting
System In The Northeast Which The Gfs Has Trended A Bit Slower To
Push Offshore. Sat-Sun/D4-5 The System In The West Should Push
Through The Rockies And Onto The Plains. The Deterministic Runs
Outpace The Ensembles With This System But Wpc Trended Back Toward The Slower Ensembles By Mon/D6 Given The Good Agreement Between The Gefs And Ecens Means In Recent Runs.

By Tue/D7... There Is Uncertainty In The West As To How Much Troughing Pushes Into The Sw States... With The 00z Ecmwf/ Canadian On The More Amplified Side Of The Ensemble Spread But With Support From Several Gefs/Ecmwf Members. Continuity With This Trough Has Been Poor Over The Past Couple Of Days In Both Speed And Amplitude... So Opted To Transition Toward A Blend Of The Gefs/Ecens Means With Just A Minor Weighting Of The 00z Ecmwf As A Hedge Toward A More Amplified Trough.

Downstream... Rising Heights In The East Should Balance The Western Troughing As Sfc High Pressure Slides Off The Coast.

...Sensible Weather Impacts....

Exiting System In The Northeast/Great Lakes Fri/D3 Should Squeeze
Out Modest Amounts Of Rain Along/Ahead Of The Frontal Boundary
From The Southeast Into The Mid-Atlantic. Enough Cold Air Should
Be In Place Over The Northern Lakes To Support Several Inches Of
Snow. Lake Effect/Enhanced Show Showers May Remain Through Sat/D4.

Then In The West... A Robust Upper System Should Push Its Sfc
Front Through The Intermountain West With Generally Light Qpf But
Much Colder Air. Temperatures Should Stay About 10-15 Degrees
Below Normal North Of About 40n.

By Early Next Week... Stalled Frontal Boundary Over Florida May Be
The Focus Of Moderate To Heavy Rain With Pw Values Likely To Hover
Near Or Over 1.50 In.

Other Area Of Light To Moderate Rain Should Follow The Main Area Of Low Pressure Into The Great Lakes And Then Canada Mon/D6... With The Focus Likely Turning To The Southern Plains.

As The Upper Trough Pushes Eastward Through The Sw. Potential Exists For Another Robust Spring Storm Depending On How Strong The Trough Becomes.


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