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US Final Extended Weather thru Apr 13

...Overview And Model Preferences...

The Upper Pattern Over The Conus Next Week Should Feature A
Ridge/Trough/Ridge Configuration Over The Eastern Pacific/Western
Us/Eastern Us... Respectively... That Weakens In Time.

The Global Models/Ensembles All Show This Setup And Evolution But Differ On Its Timing.

The Ecmwf/Ecens Members Remain Slower With The Trough Than The Gfs/Gefs Members While The Ukmet Lies Somewhat In Between
But More Toward The Gfs Camp. The Canadian Is On The Quicker Side As Well.

The Gfs/Gefs Mean Have Been Less Consistent Than The Ecmwf And Especially The Ecmwf Ensemble Mean Over The Past Couple
Of Days... So The Ongoing Wpc Preference Remains With The Ecmwf
Ensemble Mean. Used An Equal Weighting Between It And Its
Deterministic Run Early In The Forecast Before Increasing The
Ensemble Weighting.

...Sensible Weather Highlights....

As The Deep Trough Exits The Western Us... A Dynamic Sfc System
Will Progress Eastward Through The Mid-Ms Valley Into The Ohio
Valley Mid To Late Week.

Strong Canadian High Pressure Over The High Plains Should Provide Enough Cold Air To Support A Swath Of Snow From Sd/Ne Eastward Into Mn/Wi While Gulf Moisture Should Flow Northward Ahead Of The Slowly Moving Cold Front.

Pw Values Near And Over 1.50 In Should Support The Chance For Moderate To Heavy Rain And Spc Has Highlighted The Chance For Severe Weather From Eastern Ok/Tx Toward The Ms River D3-4/ Tue-Wed.

System Should Remain A Decent Rainmaker Eastward To The Coast With A Continued Influx Of High Pws Into The Mid-Atlantic.

Questions Remain As To The Northward Extent Of Warmer Air In The
East Dictated By The Frontal Boundary Placement In The Mid-Atlantic.

While The Faster Gfs Pushes The Warm Air Northward Due To Less Confluence Over Southeast Canada... Will Prefer To Remain Cautious With This Scenario Given The Recent Cold In The
Northeast.

Range Among The Ensemble Members By Thu/D5 In The Northeast Eclipses 45 Degrees Fahrenheit Between The Coldest And Warmest Members /Roughly Highs Between The 40s And 80s/.

In The West... A Few Weak Systems Will Pass Through The Pac Nw And Intermountain Areas With Mostly Light To Moderate Precipitation.
The Ecmwf Ensembles Are Generally Lower With Heights Than The Gfs Members... Though Both Show Similar 48hr Qpf Amounts. Temperatures In Ca And The Southwest Should Rebound To Above Normal Once The Trough Pushes East Midweek.


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