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US Final Extended Weather Forecast thru Jun 7

...Multi-Day Heavy Rainfall Threat For Southern Florida...

The Global Numerical Models Are Indicating A Very Active Weather
Pattern For The Contiguous United States This Period.

Two Significant Systems Are Expected In The Westerlies, And A Moist,
Energetic Tropical Regime Is Predicted Over The Eastern Gulf Of
Mexico.

There Were Significant Enough Differences Among The Various Deterministic Models From Both The 00z/31 And 06z/31 Cycles To Preclude Reliance On The Details Of Any Particular Solution. The 00z/31 Ecens Mean Was Chosen As A Mass Field Guide, As It Still Addressed The Various Sensible Weather Threats, But Did Not Commit Wholesale To Exact Low Tracks, Moisture Plumes, Et
Cetera.

The First System In The Main Band Of Westerlies Is Expected To
Clear The East Coast By Early Day 4, Painting A Stripe Of Rainfall
From New England To The Central Florida Peninsula.

The Second System Is Progged To Slide Across The Northwest And Onto The Plains By Mid Period, Then Shear Into The Great Lakes By Day 7. Widespread Showers Should Soak Much Of The Nation's Midsection Throughout The Evolution Of This Wave, With A Shift In Forcing From Mid Levels To Low-Level Overrunning Across The Southern Plains Day 6.

For Florida, Whether Or Not An Organized Tropical Cyclone Materializes Over The Eastern Gulf Of Mexico--As Per The 00z/31
Gfs, Ecmwf, And Gem Global--It Appears That The High-Precipitable-Water Airmass Currently In Place Across Southern
Florida Will Continue To Be Reinforced From The South And East
Through The Next Week, With The Threat Of Protracted Heavy
Rainfall From Even Modest Shortwave Wiggles Spinning Off The
Parent Circulation Somewhere Over The Bay Of Campeche.


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