...Pattern Overview And Preferences...
The Models Show A Persistent Upper High Over The Central/Southern
Plains...Building Into The Central And Southern Rockies. There Is
Better Than Average Agreement On Its Evolution...Minus The 00z
Ecmwf Developing It Further West Than The Model/Ensemble Majority.
The Models Continue To Have Differences Regarding The Eventual
Evolution Of The Closed Low Over The Northeast Pacific...And Is
The Primary Problem In The Days 3-7 Forecast.
The 06z Gfs Tracks The Low On The Southern Edge Of The Cluster Of Solutions...And With The Anticyclone In Place In The Central Great Basin And Rockies To Act As A Block...The 00z Further North Track Is
Preferred. The 00z Ecmwf Took A Northwest Jog With The Low While
Still In The Pacific...With The 12z Fri Ecmwf Tracking Closely With The 00z Ecmwf Ensemble Mean. Given The Good Agreement Among The 12z Fri Ecmwf/00z Ecmwf Ensemble Mean/06z Gefs Mean/00z Gfs On
The Track Of The Low...A Blend Of These Solutions Was Used.
There Are Developing Differences In The Timing/Magnitude Of The
Eastern Trough. The 00z Ecmwf Was On The High Amplitude End Of The Spectrum Vs The Other Models/Ecmwf Ensemble Members...In Response To A Developing Wave In Eastern Canada Which Broke Continuity. Given The Lack Of Continuity And Support From Other Models...The 00z Ecmwf Was Not Used...Instead Substituting The 12z Fri Operational Ecmwf. Otherwise...Blending In The Gfs/12z Ecmwf/00z Ecmwf Ensemble Mean/06z Gefs Mean Should Mitigate Typical Timing Differences With The Trough.
...Sensible Weather Highlights...
The Persistence And Strength Support Above Average Confidence That Hot And Dry Conditions Will Continue Beneath And Along The
Perimeter Of The Great Plains High...With Maximum Temperatures In
The Upper 90s To Near 100 In Portions Of Central Tx.
With The Upper Low Moving Inland Across The Northwest...The 700 Mb Temperature Anomalies Of 1-2 Std Deviations Above Normal Move East Out Of The Northern Rockies/High Plains Into The Dakotas/Nebraska By Next Sat 07 Sep. Surface Maximum Temperatures Are Fcst To Be 10-15 Degrees Above Normal In Mt Days 3-5 Before Settling Back Towards Normal On Day 7 Sat 07 Sep.
Across The Pacific Northwest/Northern Rockies...The Upper Low
Moving Onshore Should Be Accompanied By Falling Temperatures And A Surge In Precipitation.
Monsoonal Moisture Focuses Showers In Western Co And Showers/ Storms Are Expected In Advance Of The Front In Southern Al/Ga And Across Fl.
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