US Final Extended Forecast thru May 12

...Overview And Model Preferences...

For What Amounts To A Very Anomalous May Flow Pattern...The
Gfs/Ecmwf Guidance Continues To Offer A Very Reasonable Scenario
Through Day 5. 5/00z Ecmwf/Gfs Guidance Packages Fit Nicely Into
The Previous Wpc Surface Fronts/Pressures And 500 Mb Graphics... With Minimal Adjustments Until Day 6...When The Next Canadian Airmass Begins To Draw Southeastward Into The Lower 48.

For Days 6-7...Used A 50/50 Blend Of The 5/00z Ec Ensemble Means
And Gefs Means For The Building Upper-Level Ridge Along The West
Coast. This Tempers The Run-To-Run Differences Between The
Deterministic Gfs/Ecmwf--Both Of Which--Have Offered A Wide
Spectrum Of 'Flip-Flop' With The Strength Of A Southeastward- Digging Canadian Shortwave (And Its Attendant Cold Front) Into The Great Lakes.

Likewise...In The Eastern Pacific...The Eastward Progression Of The Next Cutoff Has Some Ties With The Amplitude Of The Downstream Ridge Along The West Coast...And The 5/00z Ec Ensemble Means Have Trended Stronger And Less-Progressive With The Ridge Axis Along 115w-120w By Day 7.

...Sensible Weather Impacts...

Still Anticipate The Frontal Drape Stretching From The Southern
Plains To The Ohio Valley On Day 5-6 Period To Be A Focus For
Active Weather...With A Series Of Elevated Convective Episodes And
An Open Western Gulf Moisture Stream. By Day 7...This Front Shears
Eastward Across The Mid-Atlantic States. This Followed More Of A
Gfs-Derived Solution From Several Days Ago.

Fyi...Ran A Few Analog Cases For Each Of These 'Unusual' Cutoff
Storm Tracks Affecting The Weather Pattern Across The Lower 48.
Along The West Coast...Best Comparison I Could Find Was June 4-6
2009 While In The East...March 26-29 1993 Keeps Coming Up For The 'Unusual' Slow-Moving Storm Track.


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