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US Final Extended Forecast thru May 11

Model Package Was In Very Good Agreement Aloft With The Day 3-7 Forecast From Coast To Coast And Were Used Extensively Together In This Forecast Package For Day 6-7. West Coast Transitions From Exiting Cutoff Low To Amplified Ridge With Another Problematic Cutoff Replacing The Previous One Along 42n 140w By The End Of Day 7.

The 06z Gefs/Gfs Were A Bit More Amplified Along 120-125w With The
Ridge Axis Compared To The Ec/Ecmwf At Day 6 (10/12z)...But Both
Guidance Packages Suggested A Return To A More 'Normal' Mid-May
Pattern..Ie Fair Weather And Little If Any Rainfall Once The Bulk
Of The Day 3 System Migrates Inland Across The Sierra.

Along The Eastern Seaboard...The Cutoff Low Currently Over The
Ozarks Will Be On Day 3 (Over The Piedmont)...Day 4 (Off The
Mid-Atlantic Region Coast) And Day 5 (Offshore New England).
Surface Graphics Were Easily Able To Maintain Very Good Continuity
Through Day 5 Using More Of A 4/00z Ecmwf-Influenced Surface
Solution. The Gfs Was Certainly A Valid Alternative. Both Means
Were Firmly Resolved Aloft On The Speed Of The Ejecting Wave
Energy And With The Copious Amounts Of Precipitation Anticipated
With The Surface Cyclone's Track.

However..The Primary Forecast Challenge Continues To Be Associated With The Smaller-Scale Details Over The Great Lakes ...Central Rockies..Plains And Midwest As The Pacific Trough (Currently With 2 Cutoff Lows In Play) Consolidates Into A More-Organized Set Of Mid-Level Wave Progressions From Central California (Day 3) To The 4 Corners Region (Day 4)...Then Spreading Out Over Western Kansas And The Mid-Missouri Valley (Day 5).

The Surface Graphics Favored Aspects Of The Deterministic 4/06z Gfs Beyond Day 5. Although The Gefs/Ec Ensemble Means Were In Very Good (Decent) Agreement Aloft And With The Precipitation Distributions...The 4/00z Ecmwf Deterministic Looked Like An Outlier After 10/12z With Its 'Overly-Intense' Alberta Clipper (Northern Stream System) Migrating Through Southern Canada And Pulling Additional Canadian Air Southward Into The Northern Plains Next Weekend. Wpc Continues To Favor A Wet...And Wavy Frontal Structure With An Open Western Gomex Moisture Feed Into The Great Lakes And Ohio Valley.


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