US Final Extended Forecast thru Jun 9

...Heavy Rainfall For South Florida And Increasing Uncertainty About Tropical Development...

The Biggest Change In Global Numerical Guidance In The Last 24
Hours Is A Large Uptick In The Number Of Model Ensemble
Members--Both Gefs And Ecens--That Develop A Tropical Cyclone From The Primordial Tropical Soup Currently Enveloping The Region From The Bay Of Campeche To The Caribbean Sea Just East Of The Yucatan Peninsula.

Before, The Models--With The Exception Of The Gem Global-- Indicated That The Shortwave Trough Crossing The Eastern United States At The Medium Range Would Have Sufficient Amplitude To Shear The Bulk Of Moisture And Energy Over The Eastern Gulf Of
Mexico Northeastward Along The Reactivated Frontal Zone Off The
East Coast.

Now, Many Ensemble Members Show Less Amplitude With The Northern Shortwave, Hence, Less Shear Over The Eastern Gulf - Thus, More Opportunity For Tropical Cyclone Development.

Will Be Coordinating With The National Hurricane Center At 1700z This Afternoon To Discuss The Situation, With Any Changes To The Manual Frontal Progs Sent This Morning To Be Reflected In The Afternoon Hemispheric Issuance.

Chose The 00z/02 Ecens Mean As A Synoptic Guide Today, As It
Reflected The "Bagginess" To The Mass Fields Over The Gulf Of
Mexico And Eastern States Appropriate To A Large Spread In
Solutions, And Showed Reasonable Continuity Over The Northeast
Pacific And Western North America.

In General, Heavy Rainfall Is Still Anticipated Across South Florida--Despite The Eventual Outcome Of The Gulf "Soup," With The Possibility Of Soaking Rains Over Any Portion Of The Eastern United States Near The Track Of Any Organized Low Emerging From The Gulf Of Mexico.

The Central States Looks Wet With A Mean Longwave Trough In Place There.

The Far West Looks Hot And Dusty Under A Mean Ridge.


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