US Final Extended Forecast thru Jun 8

...Multi-Day Heavy Rainfall Threat For South Florida...

Relied On The 06z/01 Gefs Mean Mass Fields As A Guide For The
Fronts And Pressures For Days 3 Through 7, Chosen Because It Best
Represented Continuity And The Growing Certainty In Some Of The
Synoptic Systems Posing The Greatest Sensible Weather Threats.

All The Global Numerical Models Indicate The Continuation Of An
Unseasonably Suppressed Polar Jet Across The United States At The
Medium Range--Attendant To The At Least Modest Ongoing Blocking At High Latitudes.

The Mean Trough Is Expected To Be Anchored Over The Middle Of The Nation, And That Is Where The Widest Spread Rainfall Is Anticipated This Period. Super-Moisture-Packed Tropical Air Circulating Around A Deep-Layer Vortex Over The Gulf Of Mexico Is Expected To Wash Into Southern Florida As The Passage Of A Shortwave Trough Across The Eastern United States Elongates The Gulf Circulation.

All The Models Break Off A Chunk Of This Tropical Swirl And Track It Across The Florida Peninsula, Then Up The Southern Edge Of The Polar Westerlies Along The Southeast Coast. The Gem Global Continues To Present An Unrealistic Emergence Of A Full-Blown Tropical Cyclone Very Early In The Period, Tracking It Across Florida Then Up The Atlantic Coast Plain--Directly Astride The Baroclinic Zone In Place.

The Most Likely Outcome Is A Juicy Frontal Wave That Should Keep Most Of The Highest Moisture-Content Air East Of The Atlantic Coast North Of Jacksonville, Florida. The 0.25km Ecmwf Pushes A Slug Of 2.50+" Precipitable Water-Laden Air Across Southern Florida, Including The Keys, Next Wednesday Through Thursday, Supporting Many Inches Of Rainfall Across The Area. Will Be Coordinating With The National Hurricane Center On The First Medium-Range Hotline Call Of The Year Early This Afternoon To Discuss Any Tropical Cyclone
Potential With This System, As Well As Any Others Over The Nearby

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